Optimization Process

• Optimization ProcessJul 2, 2021, 5:18 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: SarahNibs’s comment on: A (some­what beta) site for em­bed­ding bet­ting odds in your writing

  Thanks for the feedback! Much appreciated.

• Optimization ProcessJul 2, 2021, 5:18 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: NunoSempere’s comment on: A (some­what beta) site for em­bed­ding bet­ting odds in your writing

  Thanks for the feedback! No pressure to elaborate, but if you care to—would you want to browse all predictions, even ones by people you’ve never heard of? If so, how do you know the randos you’re betting against won’t just run off with your money when you lose, and refuse to pay up when you win? Maybe you just trust the-sort-of-person-who-uses-this-site to be honorable? Or maybe you have some clever solution for establishing trust that I haven’t thought of!

  (Or maybe you meant something more like “I’d like to be able to browse my friends’ predictions,” which I can totally sympathize with and it’s on my to-do list!)

A (some­what beta) site for em­bed­ding bet­ting odds in your writing

• Optimization ProcessMar 5, 2021, 4:39 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: Bunthut’s comment on: A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

  Hmm. If we’re trying to argmax some function $f$ over the real numbers, then the simplest algorithm would be something like “iterate over all mathematical expressions $e$; for each one, check whether the program ‘iterate over all provable theorems, halting when you find one that says $e=argmaxf$’ halts; if it does, return $e$.”

  ...but I guess that’s not guaranteed to ever halt, since there could conceivably be an infinite procession of ever-more-complex expressions, eking out ever-smaller gains on $f$. It seems possible that no matter what (reasonably powerful) mathematical language you choose, there are function-expressions with finite maxima at values not expressible in your language. Which is maybe what you meant by “as far as I know there can’t be [an algorithm for it].”

  (I’m assuming our mathematical language doesn’t have the word $argmax$, since in that case we’d pretty quickly stumble on the expression $argmaxf$, verify that $argmaxf=argmaxf$, and return it, which is obviously a cop-out.)

• Optimization ProcessMar 5, 2021, 3:43 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: John_Maxwell’s comment on: A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

  The understanding I came away with: there are (at least) three stages of understanding a problem:

  1. You can’t write a program to solve it.

  2. You can write a cartoonishly wasteful program to solve it.

  3. You can write a computationally feasible program to solve it.

  “Shuffle-sort” achieves the second level of knowledge re: sorting lists. Yeah, it’s cartoonishly wasteful, and it doesn’t even resemble any computationally feasible sorting algorithm (that I’m aware of) -- but, y’know, viewed through this lens, it’s still a huge step up from not even understanding “sorting” well enough to sort a list at all.

  (Hmm, only marginally related but entertaining: if you reframe the problem of epistemology not as sequence prediction, but as “deduce what program is running your environment,” then a Solomonoff inductor can be pretty fairly described as “consider every possible object of type EnvironmentProgram; update its probability based on the sensory input; return the posterior PDF over EnvironmentProgram-space.” The equivalent program for list-sorting is “consider every possible object of type List<Int>; check if (a) it’s sorted, and (b) it matches the element-counts of the input-list; if so, return it.” Which is even more cartoonishly wasteful than shuffle-sort. Ooh, and if you want to generalize to cases where the list-elements are real numbers, I think you get/​have to include something that looks a lot like Solomonoff induction, forcing countability on the the reals by iterating over all possible programs that evaluate to real numbers (and hoping to God that whatever process generated the input list, your mathematical-expression-language is powerful enough to describe all the elements).)

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 10:52 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: Dagon’s comment on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  Yeah, a fair point!

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 10:25 PM

  11 points

  in reply to: shadonra’s comment on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  Ah! You’re saying: if my “500k coin flips” model were accurate, then most elections would be very tight (with the winner winning by a margin of around ¹⁄₈₀₀, i.e. 0.125%), which empirically isn’t what happens. So, in reality, if you don’t know how an election is going to turn out, it’s not that there are 500k fair coins, it’s that there are either 500k 51% coins or 500k 49% coins, and the uncertainty in the election outcome comes from not knowing which of those worlds you’re in. But, in either case, your chance of swinging the election is vanishingly small, because both of those worlds put extremely little probability-mass on the outcome being a one-vote margin.

  (see also: johnwentworth’s comment below)

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 10:24 PM

  4 points

  in reply to: johnswentworth’s comment on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  Also, note that your probability of swinging the election is only 1/​√n if the population is split exactly ⁵⁰⁄₅₀; it drops off superexponentially as the distribution shifts to one side or the other by √n voters or more.

  Yesss, this seems related to shadonra’s answer. If my “500k coin flips” model were accurate, then most elections would be very tight (with the winner winning by a margin of ¹⁄₈₀₀, i.e. 0.125%), which empirically isn’t what happens. So, in reality, if you don’t know how an election is going to turn out, it’s not that there are 500k fair coins, it’s that there are either 500k 51% coins or 500k 49% coins, and the uncertainty in the election outcome comes from not knowing which of those worlds you’re in. But, in either case, your chance of swinging the election is vanishingly small, because both of those worlds put extremely little probability-mass on the outcome being a one-vote margin.

  if you’re actively pushing an election, not just voting yourself, then that plausibly has a much bigger impact than just your one vote

  That… is… a very interesting corollary. Although… you only get the “superexponential” benefit in the case where you’re far out on the tail of the PDF—in the “500k 49% coins” world, throwing 100 votes for Heads instead of 1 would increase your chances of swinging the election by a factor of much, much more than 100x, but your probability of swinging the election is still negligible, since the 50% mark is, uh, 14 standard deviations out from the mean. Right?

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 9:59 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: johnswentworth’s comment on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  Wait… your county has a GDP of over half a million dollars per capita? That is insanely high!

  I agree! (Well, actually more like $1-200k/​capita, because there are more people than voters, but still.) Sources: population, GDP, turnout.

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 9:56 PM

  6 points

  in reply to: sab’s comment on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  Sure! I’m modeling the election as being $nVoters$ coin flips: if there are more Heads than Tails, then candidate H wins, else candidate T wins.

  If you flip $n$ coins, each coin coming up Heads with probability $p$, then the number of Heads is binomially distributed with standard deviation $\sqrt{\left(nVoters\right)\left(p\right)(1-p)}$, which I lazily rounded to $\sqrt{nVoters}$.

  The probability of being at a particular value near the peak of that distribution is approximately 1 /​ [that standard deviation]. (“Proof”: numerical simulation of flipping 500k coins 1M times, getting 250k Heads about ¹⁄₈₀₀ of the time.)

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 5:04 PM

  8 points

  on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  • Possible answer: “Sure, it’s individually rational for you to devote your energy to Getting Out The Vote instead of donating to charity, but the group-level rational thing for people to do is to donate to charity, rather than playing tug-o’-war against each other.”

    Ugh, yeah, maybe. I see the point of this sort of… double-think… but I’ve never been fully comfortable with it. It sounds like this argument is saying “Hey, you put yourself at a 60% probability of being right, but actually, Outside View, it should be much smaller, like 51%.” But, buddy, the 60% is already me trying to take the outside view! My inside view is that it’s more like 95%!

    It sounds like down this path lies a discussion around how overconfident I should expect my brain to be (and therefore how hard I should correct for that). Which is important, sure, but also, ugh.

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 5:03 PM

  1 point

  on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  • Possible answer: “You’re doing a causal-decision-theory calculation here (assuming that your vote might swing the election while everything else stays constant); but in reality, we need to break out [functional decision theory or whatever the new hotness is], on account of politicians predicting and “pricing in” your vote as they design their platforms.”

    Hmm, yeah, maybe. In which case, the model shouldn’t be “my vote might swing the election,” but instead “my vote will acausally incrementally change candidates’ platforms,” which I don’t have very good models for.

• Optimization ProcessFeb 26, 2021, 5:03 PM

  2 points

  on: “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

  • Possible answer: “No election is decided by a single vote; if it’s that close, it’ll be decided by lawyers.”

    Rebuttal: yeah, it’s a little fuzzy, but, without having cranked through the math, I don’t think it matters: my null hypothesis is that my vote shifts the probability distribution for who wins the legal battle in my desired direction, with an effect size around the same as in the naive lawyer-free model.

[Question] “New EA cause area: vot­ing”; or, “what’s wrong with this calcu­la­tion?”

• Optimization ProcessFeb 9, 2021, 9:59 AM

  16 points

  on: Pro­mot­ing Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets With Mean­ingless In­ter­net-Point Badges

  I would love to live in this world.

  This seems like a really hard problem: if a market like this “wins,” so that having a lot of points makes you high-status, people will try to game it, and if gaming it is easy, this will kill respect for the market.

  Specific gaming strategies I can think of:

  • Sybil attacks: I create one “real” account and 100 sock puppets; my sock puppets make dumb bets against my real account; my real account gains points, and I discard my sock puppets. Defenses I’ve heard of against Sybil attacks: make it costly to participate (e.g. proof-of-work); make the cost of losing at least as great as the benefit of winning (e.g. make “points” equal money); or do Distributed Trust Stuff (e.g. Rangzen, TrustDavis).

  • Calibration-fluffing: if the market grades me on calibration, then I can make dumb predictions but still look perfectly calibrated by counterbalancing those with more dumb predictions (e.g. predict “We’ll have AGI by Tuesday, 90%”, then balance that out with nine “The sun will rise tomorrow, 90%” predictions). To protect against this… seems like you’d need some sort of way to distinguish “predictions that matter” from “calibration fluff.”

  • Buying status: pay people to make dumb bets against you. The Metaculus equivalent of buying Likes or Amazon reviews. On priors, if Amazon can’t squash this problem, it probably can’t be squashed.

[Question] Any layper­son-ac­cessible refer­ence posts on how to op­er­a­tional­ize be­liefs ?

• Optimization ProcessFeb 5, 2021, 6:56 AM

  1 point

  in reply to: habryka’s comment on: [test post, please ig­nore]

  Is this some kind of attempt at code injection? :P

  Only the benign kind! I’ve got some ideas burbling in my brain re: embedding dynamic content in my writing, so I’m just exploring the limits of what Less Wrong permits in its HTML. (Conclusion: images hosted on arbitrary other domains are okay, but svgs are not. Seems sane.)

• Optimization ProcessNov 12, 2020, 5:38 AM

  4 points

  on: Does there ex­ist a de­tailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

  If no such thing exists, I might take a stab at creating one—so I’d even love to hear if you know of some causal-graph-inference-toolkit-thing that isn’t specifically for COVID but seems like a promising foundation to build atop!

  But, if no such thing exists, that also seems like evidence that it… wouldn’t be useful? Maybe because very few social graphs have the communication and methodicalness to compose a detailed list of all the interactions they take part in? Conceivably because it’s a computationally intractable problem? (I dunno, I hear that large Bayes nets are extremely hard to compute with.)

[Question] Does there ex­ist a de­tailed Bayesian COVID tracker?

• Optimization ProcessOct 27, 2020, 11:59 PM

  7 points

  on: How can I rec­on­cile these COVID test false-nega­tive num­bers?

  Further point of confusion: the Emergency Use Authorization summary mentions n=31 positive samples and n=11 negative samples in the “Analytical Specificity” section—how do you get “98%” or “99%” out of those sample sizes? Shouldn’t you need at least n=50 to get 98%? Heck, why do they have any positive (edit: negative) samples in a “Specificity” section?