Some wagers have the problem that their outcome correlates with the value of what’s promised. For example, “I bet $90 against your $10 that the dollar will not undergo >1000% inflation in the next ten years”: the apparent odds of 9:1 don’t equal the probability of hyperinflation at which you’d be indifferent to this bet.
For some (all?) of these problematic bets, you can mitigate the problem by making the money change hands in only one arm of the bet, reframing it as e.g. “For $90, I will sell you an IOU that pays out $100 in ten years if the dollar hasn’t seen >1000% inflation.” (Okay, you’ll still need to tweak the numbers for time-discounting purposes, but it seems simpler now that we’re conditioning on lack-of-hyperinflation.)
Does this seem correct in the weak case? (“some”)
Does this seem correct in the strong case? (“all”)
Agreed that post-extinction payouts are essentially worthless—but doesn’t the contract “For $90, I will sell you an IOU that pays out $100 in one year if humans aren’t extinct” avoid that problem?