China is not going to recover and rebound quickly if they have no herd immunity. They’re either going to have to be on permanent war footing, decide that the number of deaths they will face is acceptable. All the best epidemiology modeling I’ve said points to a resurgence in cases in any country that does a complete lockdown (a la China) for only a few months.
Just look at the Neil Ferguson study if you want an understanding of the likely impact of various interventions.
Always odd to me when people lead with a comment like this, since recessions are essentially unforecastable due to the nature of market pricing. [1]
This comment seems heavy on claims, but I’d like to at least see some of the reasoning behind it. Why will female employment go up? I suspect employment in general will go down, so predicting an increase is surprising.
[1]: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/stop-predicting-recessions/