One of the greatest casualties in creative writing as of late is that LLM outputs have gotten so good you can’t really tell by eye alone whether or not a piece is an AI output, you have to feed it through statistical analysis, and even then it’s inexact. I certainly can’t tell myself.
marquis_de_sod
Karma: 2
Even if modern US planes carried less, a ton of PGMs is probably worth something like five tons of unguided munitions—WWII strategic bombing had a CEP of somewhere around a kilometer, whereas modern PGMs (the best unclassified source I could find was from 2004 so they’re probably even better nowadays) are about 100x better at 10m. Unless your intention is “kill as many people as possible” it’s much better to have a harder-to-hit plane that can zip in, nail the targets you actually want to destroy, and get out with minimal collateral damage.
I work for $BIGTECH$ and they’ve spent quite a lot of effort and money (multiples of tens of millions by my own back of the napkin estimation) on getting everyone, and I mean everyone, onto Claude Code. I rack up a $100 bill daily and I know guys who’ll do 10x that. We’re in the narrow sense a government/defense contractor, and I would imagine the guys at the top are going to be extremely angry when this whole initiative they’ve spent so much on gets stonewalled by a decision that could be generously construed as “arbitrary” or “short-sighted” as a whole. If the expansive interpretation holds, I would find myself surprised if Anthropic is alive in any meaningful capacity by Christmas, but I wouldn’t rule out a purposefully narrowed interpretation—there’s quite a lot of institutional money backing Anthropic, 4.6-opus is the current state of the art based solely on METR time horizons (admittedly no data yet for Gemini 3.1-pro) and stripping large tech companies of access to cutting edge tools would quickly make enemies of a large amount of very influential and wealthy industrialists—maybe not the wisest move politically.
I wasn’t able to find a reliable source on the WWII hit rate, I agree it’s almost certainly higher than 5:1.