kilotaras

Karma: 78

kilotaras Nov 18, 2024, 9:10 AM
5 points
2
in reply to: philip_b’s comment on: “It’s a 10% chance which I did 10 times, so it should be 100%”
Strong agree.

Hiding the main result beyond spoiler makes for a great reveal, but less useful for skimming.

kilotaras May 31, 2024, 10:52 AM
13 points
0
in reply to: Mateusz Bagiński’s comment on: Non-Disparagement Canaries for OpenAI

Can the gov force them not to remove the canary?

In theory this can be circumvented by regularly publishing “as of MM YYYY i have not received a warrant from government”.

In practice—we would not know if someone was forced by government to produce a particular canary. Government that can force someone to lie would likely be also able to force someone not to disclose they were forced.

Another thing government can do (and in case of Australia did) is to prohibit canaries in some cases alltogether by making it illegal to “disclose information about the existence or non-existence”.

kilotaras Apr 22, 2024, 10:11 AM
6 points
2
in reply to: cousin_it’s comment on: cousin_it’s Shortform

blocking redevelopment of themselves

It’s not just blocking redevelopments of themselves. It’s blocking almost all development almost everywhere.

As an example—take a look at Scott’s Alexander writing about California Forever/Flannery.

Flannery wants to build a new city in California and has already bought almost a billion worth of land for it. Solano County where the land is located has a so-called “Orderly Growth Measure” saying that new building should happen in existing cities and not on empty land. In order to start building at all, they have to win a referendum granting an exemption.

kilotaras Apr 7, 2024, 1:23 PM
3 points
0
in reply to: JBlack’s comment on: On the 2nd CWT with Jonathan Haidt
2nd appearance of Jonathan Haidt on “Conversations with Tyler” podcast.

kilotaras Feb 19, 2024, 11:09 AM
−2 points
−11
on: Weighing reputational and moral consequences of leaving Russia or staying

I’m not involved in politics or the military action, but I can’t help but feel implicated by my government’s actions as a citizen here. Specifically, the increasing authoritarianism and human rights issues worry me.

You’re indirectly supporting war with taxes, especially as someone in relatively high-paid job. At least 35% of taxes you pay do go towards buying Iranian drones or paying salaries for soldiers raping civilians. The moral effect of this is worse than average citizen, as you’re in high paying job,

kilotaras Aug 8, 2023, 9:42 PM
1 point
0
in reply to: mruwnik’s comment on: Monthly Roundup #9: August 2023
Oh, I agree. As a non-us person who will have to fill that additional friction is not welcome.

But the system was in the making for years, I remember discussing it with someone 4+ years ago. Which, again, points against “retaliation to the US” as a main explanation.

kilotaras Aug 8, 2023, 7:39 PM
1 point
0
on: Monthly Roundup #9: August 2023
EU to require online Visa applications by Americans before visiting...in retaliation to a similar set of rules by the USA

That’s very US-centric view.
1. It is not a visa in the usual sense, not more than ESTA is a visa.
2. EU to require this application for every country that it currently has visa-free regime with.
Which makes “we want to somewhat vet people coming in” (same as US) more likely than “let us show those yankees who’s the boss”

kilotaras Feb 22, 2023, 11:34 AM
4 points
2
on: AI #1: Sydney and Bing

In response, because my open window of Bing-related tabs looked like this,

Non-AI response, but I cannot recommend Firefox + Tree Style Tab enough.

It’s one of those things that made me think “how did I go without it”.

kilotaras Feb 19, 2023, 8:19 PM
1 point
0
on: Andrew Huberman on How to Optimize Sleep

Elevate the end of the bed by 3-5 degrees

Um...which one?

kilotaras Dec 29, 2022, 8:02 PM
1 point
0
on: Looking Back on Posts From 2022
TYPOs

no one is making such complications

Compilations?

Do you feelfree to

missing space

kilotaras Dec 29, 2022, 6:35 PM
1 point
0
on: What is the best way to approach Expected Value calculations when payoffs are highly skewed?
Most people have non-linear utility of money. Going from 10 thousand to 1 million is less impactful than going from 1 million to 1.99 million, even though it’s the same absolute change.

There’s a tool called “certain equivalent” which can help with answering “how much do I value money?”

It boils down to repeatedly asking and answering question: “If I had a choice between $X and 50% of $Y at which X would I be ambivalent about which side I pick” for different value of $Y, e.g. for Bob, the 25 year old postdoc it may be

50% chance of Equivalent to certainty of

$10 $5

$100 $50

$1000 $500

$10000 $4000

$100000 $35000

$500000 $75000

Notice how at higher level certain equivalent is no longer just dividing by two. For Bob utility from having $75k is higher than 50% of utility of having $400k. The reason for this nonlinearity is usually downstream effects of having money. E.g. for Bob $75k would be enough to get a downpayment for house he wants and highly increase chance of him a comfortable life down the line. 50% chance of buying the house outright is not worth the risk for Bob.

50% chance of	Equivalent to certainty of
$10	$5
$100	$50
$1000	$500
$10000	$4000
$100000	$35000
$500000	$75000

kilotaras Dec 2, 2022, 4:07 PM
4 points
2
in reply to: philip_b’s comment on: Jailbreaking ChatGPT on Release Day
Molotov looks pretty close. You can of make it better by

mixing in a sticking agent (petroleum jelly, motor oil, etc.)

but general scheme remains the same.

kilotaras Nov 23, 2022, 9:10 AM
3 points
0
on: Rationalist Town Hall: FTX Fallout Edition (RSVP Required)
Time in you local timezone. Assuming that PT stands for PST

kilotaras Nov 20, 2022, 6:35 PM
2 points
1
on: By Default, GPTs Think In Plain Sight
RLHF definition: Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback.

kilotaras Nov 18, 2022, 12:32 PM
3 points
2
on: Open & Welcome Thread—November 2022
Looking for recommendation: tools (or flows in popular software) to easily stack rank/sort lists. Bonus points if it helps with “get top 5 items” without doing full sorting.

kilotaras Oct 29, 2022, 8:02 PM
1 point
1
in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Ukraine and the Crimea Question
Did your “commit less war crimes” (link to Amnesty international) position changed in response to Villiam’s comment about how Amnesty’s reports work?

kilotaras Oct 13, 2022, 6:14 PM
1 point
0
in reply to: Lone Pine’s comment on: Weekly Non-Covid News #1 (10/13/22)
Efficient (in EMH) usually refers to inability to predict sign/magnitude of the prediction error.

For omniscient being answer to any prediction question is either 0 or 100. For rest of us—no so much.

See hydrogen examle in An equilibrium of no free energy

kilotaras Jun 8, 2022, 8:49 AM
1 point
on: Where to Live for Happiness
f I live in Dallas and make $100,000/year, I would need to make $86,000 to maintain my standard of living in Cleveland

Things that don’t adjust to CoL.
1. Savings. Arguable a bit TBH. If you plan to retire in same area—you probably want to adjust it. If you’re saving for a world roundtrip—no. May be a mix of both.
2. Out of state/country/city trips.
3. Non-local charity givings.
4. Internet shopping.
5. Big ticket items: cars, etc.
I really like the suggestion to make actual budget for different scenarios in different places to understand what you need to make/how much will you save.

kilotaras Apr 6, 2022, 2:54 PM
1 point
in reply to: Mawrak’s comment on: Ukraine Post #9: Again
Besides witnesses there’s
1. NY times article showing satellite images with bodies appearing during occupation period.
2. Drone footage of armour shooting on cyclist.
What would you consider a more direct evidence?

kilotaras 8 Mar 2022 13:54 UTC
34 points
on: March 2022 Welcome & Open Thread
On Feb 19th I came from London to visit my parents in Lviv (first time since September). On 24th I woke up to Russian attack, general mobilization order and prohibition to leave the country.

Failure #1: didn’t take possibility and impact of total Russian attack in consideration when planning the trip.

I mentioned to a coworker that countries moving embassies out of Kyiv is a costly signal. Nevertheless I looked at it and went into cached thought: the war is localized to parts of Donbas.

Failure #2: on morning of 24th it was possible to leave the country. I didn’t. Looking back - it feels like I was in the freeze mode from Fight/Flight/Freeze triad. I got out of stupor and doomscroling by end of day. By that time males of my age were prohibited to leave the country.