EA Forum developer
I had forgotten this post, reread it and still think it’s one of the better things of it’s length I’ve read recently.
Why is this comment bold?
Another suggestion: could this post be linked to by the link database page?
Suggestion: a forecasting section. Already some of your “Other” links would do well there.
Does anyone want to venture a guess for the true number of cases in the Bay Area right now?
I just some rough back-of-the-envelope calculations, following the method here. Currently there are 2 deaths in the Bay Area. I keep his time-till-death rate of 17.3 days, but substitute a doubling time of 3 days, based on Our World in Data’s US number. I get 2*100*exp(17.3*.231) ≈ 11,000, or about 2/1000 bay area residents. Super non-robust number, take with several grains of salt.
(.231 is the rate I get when solving for r in the exponential growth function for a doubling in 3 days.)
Why not ask this as a question post?
I intuitively think it’s good, but have in fact noticed myself clicking to dismiss it despite not having read it or thought about whether I’d like to read it.
Rohin argues elsewhere for taking a vote (at least in principal). If 50% vote in favor, then he has successfully avoided “falling into the unilateralist’s curse” and has gotten $1.6k for AMF. He even has some bonus for “solved the unilateralist’s curse in a way that’s not just “sit on his hands”. Now, it’s probably worth subtracting points for “the LW team asked them not to blow up the site and the community decided to anyway.” But I’d consider it fair play.
It could partially motivated by lifesaving but they wouldn’t have donated otherwise. Like, not if they’re a perfectly rational agent, but hey.
I feel like I’d rather live in the world where I could leave slack unblocked and still focus on my codebase that takes 25 seconds to reload on file save.
I felt like this was a scarily accurate description of my focus situation. And then I read the part about the chocolate, and like, good lord, get out of my head.
I’m a complete newcomer to information on Bacon and his time. How much of his influence was due to Novum Organum itself vs other things he did? If significantly the latter, what were those things? Feel free to tell me to Google that.
Sometimes you need someone to give the naive view, but doing so hurts the reputation of the person stating it.
For example suppose X is the naive view and Y is a more sophisticated view of the same subject. For sake of argument suppose X is correct and contradicts Y.
Given 6 people, maybe 1 of them starts off believing Y. 2 people are uncertain, and 3 people think X. In the world where people have their usernames attached. The 3 people who believe X now have a coordination problem. They each face a local disincentive to state the case for X, although they definitely want _someone_ to say it. The equilibrium here is that no one makes the case for X and the two uncertain people get persuaded to view Y.
However if someone is anonymous and doesn’t care that much about their reputation, they may just go ahead and state the case for X, providing much better information to the undecided people.
This makes me happy there are some smart people posting under pseudonyms. I claim it is a positive factor for the epistemics of LessWrong.
I’m really glad to have this comment! It seems much more valuable to know that something passes a first attempt by a second party than to just hear a recommendation from one person’s experience.
FWIW I dramatically misinterpreted what the “people” disagreed with and did not think “AMF is better than a restaurant” was the claim that would be contested.
Do Anki while Weightlifting
Many rationalists appear to be interested in weightlifting. I certainly have enjoyed having a gym habit. I have a recommendation for those who do:
Try studying Anki cards while resting between weightlifting sets.
The upside is high. Building the habit of studying Anki cards is hard, and if doing it at the gym causes it to stick, you can now remember things by choice not chance.
And the cost is pretty low. I rest for 90 seconds between sets, and do about 20 sets when I go to the gym. Assuming I get a minute in once the overheads are accounted for, that gives me 20 minutes of studying. I go through about 4 cards per minute, so I could do 80 cards per visit to the gym. In practice I spend only ~5 minutes studying per visit, because I don’t have that many cards.
I’m not too tired to concentrate. In fact, the adrenaline high makes me happy to have something mentally active to do. Probably because of this, it doesn’t at all decrease my desire to go to the gym.
I find I can add simple cards to my Anki deck at the gym, although the mobile app does make it slow.
Give it a try! It’s cheap to experiment and the value of a positive result is high.
The goal I ended up going with was two edited posts this week, due Sunday.