I see you as arguing that GW/Open Phil might change its strategic outlook in the future and that their disclosures aren’t high precision so we can’t rule out that (at some point in the future or even today) giving to GW recommended charities could lead Open Phil to give more to orgs like those in the EA Funds.
That doesn’t strike me as sufficient to argue that GW recommended charities funge so heavily against EA funds that it’s “odd to spend attention distinguishing them, vs spending effort distinguishing substantially different strategies.”
What’s the reason to think EA Funds (other than the global health and development one) currently funges heavily with GiveWell recommended charities? My guess would have been that that increased donations to GiveWell’s recommended charities would not cause many other donors (including Open Phil or Good Ventures) to give instead to orgs like those supported by the Long-Term Future, EA Community, or Animal Welfare EA Funds.
In particular, to me this seems in tension with Open Phil’s last public writing on it’s current thinking about how much to give to GW recommendations versus these other cause areas (“world views” in Holden’s terminology). In his January “Update on Cause Prioritization at Open Philanthropy,” Holden wrote:
There are some slight complications here but overall it doesn’t seem to me that Open Phil/GV’s giving to long-termist areas is very sensitive to other donors’ decisions about giving to GW’s recommended charities. Contra Ben H, I therefore think it does currently make sense for donors to spend attention distinguishing between EA Funds and GW’s recommendations.
For what it’s worth, there might be a stronger case that EA Funds funges against long-termist/EA community/Animal welfare grants that Open Phil would otherwise make but I think that’s actually an effect with substantially different consequences.
[Disclosure—I formerly worked at GiveWell and Open Phil but haven’t worked there for over a year and I don’t think anything in this comment is based on any specific inside information.]
[Edited to make my disclosure slightly more specific/nuanced.]