Hiding in a shrubbery
hamnox
Karma: 1,075
Someone suggested to me recently that, against all appearances and expectations, the Trump Administration not buying enough mRNA vaccine for everyone right off the bat was actually the right call. We knew other vaccines were on the way which had way less exacting distribution conditions and/or were single-dose.
I suspect that proposition is Off in some important way, like the doses weren’t enough even to hold out for a switch out, and am curious what thoughts you all have about it.
That’s a possibility, sure, but not an overriding one.
Consider the case that your happy price is $5. It’s worth it to you to do for free if your friend wants a cake, as it is a small cost for the sake of a friend. How you balance the costs and benefits of maintaining a relationship is up to you.
Y hates baking, and out of typical-minding expected it to be more like $40 when she asked. She can, at that point, just ask you to do her a personal favor on the scale of $5. How scrupulously you follow up on favours and IOUs is also up to you.
How do politics actually happen? I have so few gears in my model. I don’t like trying to figure out the object level of what’s going on through layers of other people’s interpretations and commentary. I want there to be eyes on the ground collecting what’s newsworthy from a Gearsy or EA perspective, and for I might as well give it a try it myself. Ground up, by skimming meeting agendas and possibly video feeds to figure out play by play what powerful people are spending their time on.
Of the US Gov, I want to know
What Congress is up to—
What the Senate is up to -What the President is up to -
What the First Lady is up to—
What the VP is up to -What the Executive Office of the President is putting out -
What the supreme court members are up to -
What the US court of appeals is up to -Still thinking about how to do this, just want the idea on the record.
I’d be interested in doing an exchange of this sort! I’m here. I do tedious data entry work. What kinda somethings are you thinking?
I use org-mode and export the same information in both HTML and PDF. If you’re looking for a way to annotate the web take a look at hypothes.is!
So this is what I’ve spent my time thinking about. It’s a consideration of how to structure a Roam-alike cross-referencing notes system on the data mesh structure of CTZN.
\o/ Federated Peer-to-Peer for the WIIIIN!
It is not, but I do see people treating it that way.
thanks, fixed
I have suspected there might be mood/energy effects but never managed to track my cycle and mood well enough to show a correlation. It’s only gotten harder to track since my IUD lightened the bleeding to almost non-existent.
I want one. Give me the internet points.
Here’s that’s risk curve.
Percent risk by No. of contacts
and the risk-to-others curve, against the 0.01x*0.30x quadratic for reference. the risk gets closer to linear the farther out you go.Expected contribution to spread given number of contacts
(assuming 30% transmission risk if positive)I have no idea how to model the effects beyond this point tbqh. There’s complicated probability dependence among social contacts and I don’t know how to avoid double-counting people who were already infected.
Also keep the Gambler’s fallacy in mind when considering whether to add contacts:
If you meet 1 person then the risk is 1%. If you meet 100 people the risk is 63%. If you meet 99 people, confirm you didn’t get covid, and then meet 1 more, your risk is 1%.
(Very Approximately because, again, there’s complicated probability dependence among social contacts.)
A broad range of examples, lots of variety! That’s perfect for gesturing at the overarching idea, lest we blow up conversations focusing on specifics in a narrow set.
3. pretty sure the biggest blocker to changing school times is parents’ work schedules. If the schedules diverge too much parents would have a harder time providing transportation to school and mandating adult supervision at all times.
6. it’s not entirely about relative armament. there is base benefit to being able to get rid of neighbors you don’t like or who are sitting on top of resources you want, independent of whether they pose any military threat to you.
The tails come apart. If you aim for extremes, you wind up selecting against other forms of goodness. It’s not robust. This is bad both for your goals, if you are incorrect about your goals at all, and socially bad, because it moves you off of (?)cooperative ground(?) where seeking your values correlates with seeking theirs.
Latex or nitrile, like you’d find at a hospital.
Most grocery stores will sell reusable rubbery gloves for cleaning, but those are usually too thick and oversized to get the fine motor control I want when cooking.
You should be skeptical about your most current one! It is likely better informed than previous ones, but that doesn’t mean you’re done processing.
BUT, you need to exercise that skepticism by knowing what your best understanding strongly predicts and what discrepancies should surprise you, not by trying to make yourself give humbler answers.
It seems you’ve had some success in thinking things through rigorously on your own, so kudos to you! I can relate to not buying into any existing worldview.
Glad you did stick around. Anything in particular about the epistemic culture that you think works especially well or poorly?
I am tickled by your website, you have interestingly suckless aesthetic. Are you open to chatting in gather.town sometime?
oh dear. J is so familiar it was painful to read.
I expect to forward this post to people close to me, so we can better talk about Stress and Action without triggering all my Attack associations.
Have you considered the possibility that people do not list first-order effects to individuals because huge swaths of the political establishment do not actually care about people they don’t know?
The water they swim, the air they breathe: Bringing up how something affects the outgroup’s feefees is not “obvious” or “direct”, it’s bringing up Nth-order civil breakdown effects in the most vague and indirect way possible, with figuring out all the critical details left as an exercise for the listener.
We live in a society; aka we have a tenuous contract to be copacetic and trade resources with others. They give the smallest amount of fucks about the outgroup’s happiness because an unhappy outgroup may have second-order effects in breaking down civil society with associated third-order effects on them and theirs.