elifland

Karma: 3,391

https://www.elilifland.com/. You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don’t necessarily endorse past writings.

Grading AI 2027′s 2025 Predictions

Daniel Kokotajlo and elifland

13 Feb 2026 0:18 UTC

63 points

4 comments9 min readLW link

(blog.ai-futures.org)

Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027

elifland, Daniel Kokotajlo and bhalstead

27 Jan 2026 22:58 UTC

68 points

12 comments6 min readLW link

(blog.ai-futures.org)

AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2025 Update

elifland, bhalstead, Alex Kastner and Daniel Kokotajlo

31 Dec 2025 22:34 UTC

144 points

34 comments25 min readLW link

Response to titotal’s critique of our AI 2027 timelines model

elifland and Daniel Kokotajlo

16 Dec 2025 0:51 UTC

45 points

6 comments43 min readLW link

(aifuturesnotes.substack.com)

Recent and forecasted rates of software and hardware progress

elifland26 Jun 2025 22:37 UTC

46 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

How 2025 AI Forecasts Fared So Far

Adam B, romeo and elifland

22 May 2025 9:42 UTC

13 points

3 comments8 min readLW link

(theaidigest.org)

Slow corporations as an intuition pump for AI R&D automation

ryan_greenblatt and elifland

9 May 2025 14:49 UTC

91 points

25 comments9 min readLW link

Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]

elifland and Nikola Jurkovic

10 Apr 2025 23:10 UTC

35 points

0 comments18 min readLW link

(ai-2027.com)

AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like

Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V and romeo

3 Apr 2025 16:23 UTC

690 points

223 comments41 min readLW link

(ai-2027.com)

Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)

Jonas V, elifland and Sage Future

15 Jan 2025 0:16 UTC

55 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings

elifland and Charlie Griffin

8 Mar 2024 2:30 UTC

50 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Forecasting future gains due to post-training enhancements

elifland, Joel Becker and simeon_c

8 Mar 2024 2:11 UTC

31 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Discussing how to align Transformative AI if it’s developed very soon

elifland28 Nov 2022 16:17 UTC

37 points

2 comments28 min readLW link

Eli’s review of “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”

elifland30 Sep 2022 12:21 UTC

67 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app

Sage Future and elifland

20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC

28 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Prize idea: Transmit MIRI and Eliezer’s worldviews

elifland19 Sep 2022 21:21 UTC

47 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC

34 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC

44 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

(My understanding of) What Everyone in Technical Alignment is Doing and Why

Thomas Larsen and elifland

29 Aug 2022 1:23 UTC

413 points

90 comments37 min readLW link 1 review

Discussion on utilizing AI for alignment

elifland23 Aug 2022 2:36 UTC

16 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(www.foxy-scout.com)