elifland

Karma: 2,968

https://www.elilifland.com/. You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don’t necessarily endorse past writings.

Recent and forecasted rates of software and hardware progress

elifland26 Jun 2025 22:37 UTC

46 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

How 2025 AI Forecasts Fared So Far

Adam B, romeo and elifland

22 May 2025 9:42 UTC

11 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

(theaidigest.org)

Slow corporations as an intuition pump for AI R&D automation

ryan_greenblatt and elifland

9 May 2025 14:49 UTC

91 points

23 comments9 min readLW link

Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]

elifland and Nikola Jurkovic

10 Apr 2025 23:10 UTC

35 points

0 comments18 min readLW link

(ai-2027.com)

AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like

Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V and romeo

3 Apr 2025 16:23 UTC

671 points

222 comments41 min readLW link

(ai-2027.com)

Predict 2025 AI capabilities (by Sunday)

Jonas V, elifland and Sage Future

15 Jan 2025 0:16 UTC

55 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings

elifland and charlie_griffin

8 Mar 2024 2:30 UTC

50 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Forecasting future gains due to post-training enhancements

elifland, Joel Becker and simeon_c

8 Mar 2024 2:11 UTC

31 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Discussing how to align Transformative AI if it’s developed very soon

elifland28 Nov 2022 16:17 UTC

37 points

2 comments28 min readLW link

Eli’s review of “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”

elifland30 Sep 2022 12:21 UTC

67 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app

Sage Future and elifland

20 Sep 2022 22:25 UTC

28 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

Prize idea: Transmit MIRI and Eliezer’s worldviews

elifland19 Sep 2022 21:21 UTC

47 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines?

elifland14 Sep 2022 23:56 UTC

34 points

7 comments1 min readLW link

Samotsvety’s AI risk forecasts

elifland9 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC

44 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

(My understanding of) What Everyone in Technical Alignment is Doing and Why

Thomas Larsen and elifland

29 Aug 2022 1:23 UTC

413 points

90 comments37 min readLW link 1 review

Discussion on utilizing AI for alignment

elifland23 Aug 2022 2:36 UTC

16 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(www.foxy-scout.com)

Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022

elifland21 Jul 2022 0:07 UTC

38 points

4 comments8 min readLW link

(www.foxy-scout.com)

Impactful Forecasting Prize for forecast writeups on curated Metaculus questions

elifland, sam_atis and yagudin

4 Feb 2022 20:06 UTC

41 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

elifland’s Shortform

elifland11 Jan 2022 16:35 UTC

2 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections

elifland26 Sep 2021 20:47 UTC

23 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

(www.foxy-scout.com)