In 12 months US experienced a rate of infection of about 33%. In 4 months, Indian infection rate will be about a third of that, so 10%, unless their dominant variant has a much higher R0.
How many cases of COVID were detected in your child’s school in one year?
Have you considered the cost and benefit of masks worn by your six years old child?
Is he getting bigger benefit than you?
Are his costs smaller than yours?
If Alice also want to date Carl, David, etc, does she have to do it again and again every time? Wouldn’t it be easier to do it once and put in into a blockchain?
Nobody seems to be doing any cost/benefit calculations on masks. Particularly when it comes to fully vaccinated people wearing them. Why are we not doing it, especially the cost part? The benefits at least are tractable. But the costs are not easy to calculate. Obviously they are bigger than the cost of masks themselves, time it takes to properly take care of them one way or the other, and the cost of their disposal.
But it is a bigger deal for children. Children can get complications from throat infections.
You were looking at problems with one in ten thousand odds, but you don’t have ten thousand acquaintances of acquaintances, so it is unlikely that you would get second hand reports of problems with these odds.
You have even less acquaintances with children, perhaps no more than a few hundred, so even problems with odds of one in a thousand are unlikely to reach you via second hand reports.
Rare compared to what? I haven’t seen actual studies but my anecdotal observations show about one person in ten wearing visibly moist and soiled mask. This maybe area dependent, so your observations may be different, and they are what matters. But kids are generally not as fastidious as adults. The main worry for young kids is how much more likely is the bacterial throat infection if the mask they are wearing is dirty. Here is a relevant article (https://health.clevelandclinic.org/can-you-get-a-sore-throat-from-wearing-a-dirty-mask/)
Acne aggravation from mask wearing is well-documented, but your kids are too young for that problem.
Have you looked into risks improper mask wearing poses? Things like moist dirty masks and associated increased chance of bacterial infections and aggravation of acne. Children wearing masks in school are especially at risk of wearing masks improperly.
A potentially more interesting question is what vaccine effectiveness as a function of time looks like near its protection expiration date. Not much data to answer this one yet. May become relevant in 6 months in a worst case.
Here is another ironman for FDA decision based on nothing at all. What if they are scared of unknown long term effects and take any confirmed problem as a red flag pointing to unknown long term effects. This would push them away from moustache twirling villains category.
People between 12 and 16 not getting vaccines by the end of 2021 is not even a 90% proposition. Studies are already underway for this age cohort, and it is plausible that a vaccine will be available for teenagers as soon as September of this year.
I really appreciate this comment. I just want that good cautious people quit thinking themselves already guilty of manslaughter let alone murder. Just continue to be good cautious people.
Infecting a reckless superspreader who will give it to everyone he meets did not occur to me.
Paraphrasing a famous writer, the evil may triumph but not through me.
You severely overestimate your chance of actually murdering someone. Lets go through the numbers. Lets be generous and assume a 10% chance that you are an asymptomatic carrier. If you are, you have no more than 50% chance of infecting someone even if you don’t wear a mask, so lets say with mask properly worn that is reduced to 30%. Now you are already down to 3% chance of infecting any person you encounter. Now, for you 80+ year old neighbor the chance of actually dying from infection is around 5%. So multiply your 3% chance of infecting the neighbor by 5% chance of death and you get 0.15% chance of murdering a person of advanced age. You’d need to encounter 7 of them to get to 1% chance of murder.
I understand the assumption of vulnerability. But how does one assume that one is an asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic carrier if the chance of that is less than 10% on any given day? By itself it doesn’t seem rational because if you assume you are pre-symptomatic you have to do something about it. Like testing. Testing very often for no reason comprehensible to the outside world.
There is also a risk of PEG immunity which will make one immune to lipid nanoparticle vaccine.
What is the best way to correct mistake 3 on your list?
The new lipid nanoparticle delivery method can potentially target a much wider range of cells than older modalities. Any cell can ingest an LPN and start displaying spike protein epitopes. All the cells that are not professional presenter cells and do not have MHC-2 complexes will be destroyed by immune system. Some critical, sensitive, hard to replace cells might be so killed at random if enough LPN get into systemic circulation which can occur if for example a needle pierces a blood vessel during vaccination and a large portion of LPN spills into the veins. The chance of this type of accident and the chance that significant damage to your organs will be done as a result is not very big, but it is a risk which you will be taking every time you vaccinate.
You can sum expected utility of doing your your activity A K times like so:
Calculate expected utility of doing activity A K times with K chosen in such way such that p is approximately 0.5
Then your calculation becomes: E = KU-C/2. Is this E still positive?
Another objection is that you assume that C is fixed, but it is actually a function of utilities of all the activities Ai with positive utility which you will be unable to do if infected.
First, there should be competition between different virus variants for the cells to infect. This paper
( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4426218/) discusses competitive exclusion for shorter infection cascades.
Second, there are viruses that evolved to coexist with immune system and maintain stable populations inside human host without provoking super-exponential immune response. New variants of corona viruses that gain this ability will become permanent residents in people who are partially immune. Eventually these variants will constitute a majority of corona virus populations in human hosts.
Vaccination passports must come with an expiration date and we do not know what date is best yet (obviously not 90 days.) This is because we don’t yet know for how long the vaccines provide protection and because new strains with higher vaccine escapes may emerge which will eventually necessitate boosters designed specifically against these new strains.