As a Russian I confirm that everything that Galeev says seems legit. I haven’t been following our politics that much, but Gallev’s model of Putin’s fits my observations.
The only thing that looked a little suspicious to me was the thread on Russian parliamentarism—there was an opportunity to say something about Navalny’s team there (e.g. as a central example of party that can’t be registered or something about them organizing protests), and I expected that he would mention it, but he didn’t. In fact, I don’t think he ever mentioned Navalny in any of his threads. Why?
AVoropaev
[Question] What’s the big deal about Bayes’ Theorem?
I’m no programmer, so I have no comment on “how to develop” part. The “safe” part seems extremely unsafe to me though.
1) Your strategy relies on human supervisor’s ability to recognize a threat that is disguised by superintelligence. Which is doomed to failure almost by definition.
2) Supervisor himself is not protected from possible threat. He is also one of the main targets that AI would want to affect.
3) >Moreover, the artificial agent won’t be able to change the operational system of the computer, its own code or any offline task that could fundamentally change the system.
I don’t see what kind of manual supervising could possibly accomplish that even if none of other problems existed.4) Human experts don’t have “complete understanding” of any subject worth mentioning. Certainly nothing involving biology. So your AI will just produce a text that convinces them that proposed solution is safe. Being superintelligent, it’ll be able to do it even if the solution is not in fact safe. Or it might produce some other dangerous texts, like texts that convince them to lie to you that solution is safe.
To clarify: this site contains very effective propaganda that makes it a cognitohazard. You are likely underestimating its danger. It is not “just a bunch of fake statements”. It is “a bunch of statements optimized for inflicting particular effects on its readers”. Such “particular effects” are not limited to believing in what news says. In fact, news regularly contradict what they said a few months ago even in peace time, so believing what they are literally saying is probably not the point.
Before reading propaganda consider that such materials:1) Convinced a lot (a majority?) of Russians that Russian army is heroically fighting western nazis.
1.1) Not all such Russians are dumb—some of them are rather smart, there are some scientists, etc.
2) Convinced some (a sizable minority?) of Ukrainians that they are living under nazi rule.
3) It is possible that you are at a disadvantage compared to all those people since you likely haven’t encountered such propaganda before.
For example, there are a lot of contrmemes to government propaganda in Russian culture. Some of them are exploited by modern propaganda (All other media are also lying!), but I suspect that their effect is net positive, especially in more educated people.
What improvements do you suggest?
To teach million kids you need like hundred thousand teachers from Dath Ilani. They don’t currently exist.
It can be circumvented by first teaching say a hundred students, 10% of which becomes teachers and help teaching new ‘generation’. If each ‘generation’ takes 5 years, and one teacher can teach 10 students in one generation, the amount of teachers will be multiplied by 2 every 5 years, and you’ll get a million Dath Ilanians in like 50 years.
One teacher teaching 10 students and 1 of them becoming a teacher might be more possible than it seems. For example, if instead of Dath Ilani ways we speak about non-terrible level of math, then I’ve worked in a system that have 1 math teacher per 6-12 students, 3%-5% of students become teachers and generation takes 3-6 years.
The problem is, currently we have 0 Dath Ilani teachers.
I’m trying to see what makes those numbers so implausible, and as far as I understand (at least without looking into regional data) the most surprising/suspicious thing is that number of new cases of Delta is dropping too fast.
But why shouldn’t it be dropping fast? Odds of people getting Omicron (as opposed to Delta) are growing fast enough—if we assume that they are (# of Omicron cases)/(# of Delta cases)*(some coefficient like their relative R_0), then due to Omicrons’s fast doubling it can go from 1:2 to 4:1 in just a week. That will make new Delta cases among the population for which Omicron and Delta compete (as in they are destined to get one or the other) drop from 66% to 20% -- more than three times.
In real world there are no people destined to get Covid. But there are unvaccinated people that go unmasked to a club with hundreds of other people like them—and continue to do it until they get Covid. This and other similar modes of behavior seem like a close enough approximation of “people destined to get a covid”. Is it close enough? Are there enough of people like that compared to people for whom Omicron and Delta don’t compete that much? I don’t know, quite possibly not.
Does it mean that in order to notice that nowcasts’ data is suspicious, I must have some knowledge about how different variants compete with each other? Can someone ELIU to me how this competition happens? Am I missing something else?
I’ve skimmed over the beginning of your paper, and I think there might be several problems with it.
I don’t see where it is explicitly stated, but I think information “seller’s prediction is accurate with probability 0,75” is supposed to be common knowledge. Is it even possible for a non-trivial probabilistic prediction to be a common knowledge? Like, not as in some real-life situation, but as in this condition not being logical contradiction? I am not a specialist on this subject, but it looks like a logical contradiction. And you can prove absolutely anything if your premise contains contradiction.
A minor nitpick compared to the previous one, but you don’t specify what you mean by “prediction is accurate with probability 0.75”. What kinds of mistakes does seller make? For example, if buyer is going to buy the , then with probability 0.75 the prediction will be “”. What about the 0.25? Will it be 0.125 for “none” and 0.125 for “”? Will it be 0.25 for “none” and 0 for “”? (And does buyer knows about that? What about seller knowing about buyer knowing...)
When you write “$1−P (money in Bi | buyer chooses Bi ) · $3 = $1 − 0.25 · $3 = $0.25.”, you assume that P(money in Bi | buyer chooses Bi )=0.75. That is, if buyer chooses the first box, seller can’t possibly think that buyer will choose none of the boxes. And the same for the case of buyer choosing the second box. You can easily fix it by writing “$1−P (money in Bi | buyer chooses Bi ) · $3 >= $1 − 0.25 · $3 = $0.25″ instead. It is possible that you make some other implicit assumptions about mistakes that seller can make, so you might want to check it.
Two questions about capabilities of GPT-4.
The jump in capabilities from GPT-3 to GPT-4 seems like much much less impressive than jump from GPT-2 to GPT-3. Part of that is likely because later version of GPT-3 were noticeably smarter than the first ones, but that reason doesn’t seem sufficient to me. So what’s up? Should I expect that GPT-4 → GPT-5 will be barely noticeable?
In particular I am rather surprised at apparent lack in ability to solve nonstandard math problems. I didn’t expect it to beat IMO, but I did expect that problems for 12 y/o would be accessible, and they weren’t. (I personally tried only Bing, so perhaps usual GPT-4 is better. But I’ve seen only one successful attempt with GPT-4, and it was mostly trigonometry.). So what’s up? I am tempted to say that math is just harder than economy, biology, etc. But that’s likely not it.
Update: Prosecutor’s General Office says that protest will be treated as “participation in radical group” which is up to 6 years. Probably won’t be used too massively, at least initially.
Thank you for treating it as a “today’s lucky 10,000” event. I am aware about quines (though not much more than just ‘aware’) and what I am worried about is whether people that created FairBot were careful enough.
It’ not about relative age (either as in age of one person divided by age of another or one age substracted from another), it’s about their month of birth. So it’s evidence for relevance of amount of received sunshine during pregnancy, relevance of age of being admitted in school and relevance of astrology.
Since it seems to somewhat align with different kinds of education starting in different times of year, my personal bet is on schools, though I wouldn’t completely discount differences of pregnancies in different times of the year (sorry, astrology, but I need a lot more evidence to seriously consider you).
How can you check proof of any interesting statement about real world using only math? The best you can do is check for mathematical mistakes.
What’s the source of that 505 employees letter? I mean the contents aren’t too crazy, but isn’t it strange that the only thing we have is a screenshot of the first page?
Re: Tik-tok viral videos. I think that the cliff is simply because recent videos had too little time to be watched 10m times. The second graph in the article is not about the same for 0.1m views, but about average views per week (among videos with >0.1m views), which stays stable.
I don’t understand the point of questions 1 and 3.
If we forget about details of how model works, the question 1 essentially checks whether the entity in question have a good enough rng. Which doesn’t seem to be particularly relevant? Human with a vocabulary and random.org can do that. AutoGTP with access to vocabulary and random.org also have a rather good shot. Superintelligence that for some reason decides to not use rng and answer deterministically will fail. I suppose it would be very interesting to learn that say GPT-6 can do it without external rng, but what would it tell us about it’s other capabilities?
The question 3 checks for something weird. If I wanted to pass it, I’d probably have to precommit on answering certain weird questions in a particular way (and also ensure to always have access to some rng). Which is a weird thing to do? I expect humans to fail at that, but I also expect almost every possible intelligence to fail at that.
In contrast question 2 checks for something “which part of input do you find most surprising” which seems like a really useful skill to have and we should probably watch out for it.
Yeah, you are right. It seems that it was actually one of the harder ones I tried. This particular problem was solved by 4 of 28 members of a relatively strong group. I distinctly remember also trying some easy problems from a relatively weak group, but I don’t have notes and Bing don’t save chat.
I guess I should just try again, especially in light of gwillen’s comment. (By the way, if somebody with access to actual GPT-4 is willing to help me with testing it on some math problems, I’d really appreacite it .)
That would explain a lot. I’ve heard this rumor, but when I tried to trace the source, i haven’t found anything better than guesses. So I dismissed it, but maybe I shouldn’t have. Do you have a better source?
I agree that there are some impressive improvements from GPT-3 to GPT-4. But they seem to me a lot less impressive than jump from GPT-2 producing barely coherent texts to GPT-3 (somewhat) figuring out how to play chess.
I disagree with you take on LLM’s math abilities. Wolfram Alpha helps with tasks like SAT—and GPT-4 is doing well enough on them. But for some reason it (at least in the incarnation of Bing) has trouble with simple logic puzzles like the one I mentioned in other comment.
Can you tell more about success with theoretical physics concepts? I don’t think I’ve seen anybody try that.
I think that if Lesswrong wants to be less wrong, then questions “why do you believe in that?” should not be downvoted.
As for the question itself, I know next to nothing about the situation on this NPP, but just from priors I’d give 70% that if someone shelled it, it was Russian army.
1) It is easier to shoot at NPP if you don’t know what you re shooting at. Russian army is much more likely to mistake this target for something else.
2) p(Russian government lies that it wasn’t them | it was them) > p(Ukrainian government lies it wasn’t them | it was them) (I believe in that since I believe that the left number is very very close to 1.)
3) I am under impression that Russian army uses a lot more artillery. It is somewhat less important for such important target (Ukrainian army is probably incentivized to concentrate their limited resources here), but probably still important.
I’d also like to hear an opinion of somebody who have more information about this.