By the way, my mom told me recently she was speaking with a friend from Russia. Her friend went to a clinic and tested positive for covid. Then they went again and tested negative. They asked what the deal was. They were told by a doctor in a very straightforward manner that: “the state tells us how many positive tests we can report per week.” There’s some chance that they don’t even do testing in some clinics, but just assign results randomly to people following the state’s prescription.
Alexei(Alexei Andreev)
Karma: 3,393
Maximizing Your Donations via a Job
Personal examples of semantic stopsigns
Crypto quant trading: Intro
“The Holy Grail” of portfolio management
What’s up with Arbital?
Dissolving the “Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?” Question
Crypto quant trading: Naive Bayes
[Question] What posts on finance would your find helpful or interesting?
I strongly agree with this sentiment, and currently Arbital’s course is to address this problem. I realize there have been several discussions on LW about bringing LW back / doing LW 2.0, and Arbital has often come up. Up until two weeks ago we were focusing on “Arbital as the platform for intuitive math explanations”, but that proved to be harder to scale than we thought. We now pivoted to a more discussion-oriented truth-seeking north star, which was our long-term goal all along. We are going to need innovation and experimentation both on the software and the community levels, but I’m looking forward to the challenge. :)
I think overall I just appreciate that you guys did something for April 1st. It made the website / community feel a bit more alive.
What happens when your beliefs fully propagate
The Mind: Board Game Review
Life-tracking application for android
Okay this is weak sauce. I really don’t get how people just keep letting the AI out. It’s not that hard to say no! I’m offering to play the Gatekeeper against an AI player that has at least one game as AI under their belt (won or not). (Experience is required because I’m pretty sure I’ll win, and I would like to not waste a lot of time on this.) If AI wins, they will get $300, and I’ll give an additional $300 to the charity of their choice.
Tux, if you are up for this, I’ll accept your $150 fee, plus you’ll get $150 if you win and $300 to a charity.
Apparently contacting IBO directly doesn’t work for this. They told me I should contact the school directly. After some searching, I was able to find the email of the IB Coordinator for that school.
Black hole narratives
This comment was written in response to you feeling confused about what strategies to explore. I might write a fuller post about it, but for now here’re the thoughts off the top of my head:
Calling marking anti-inductive is correct, but it’s not helpful when trying to find strategies (as you’ve just noticed). I’d break down the strategy research process steps into:
1) Can you find a strategy (algorithm + data) that historically has performed well?
2) Can you find this strategy in such a way so as not to find a ton of other strategies that worked by random chance?
3) What % of the market has figured out this strategy?
From Eliezer’s post:
Let’s say you see me flipping a coin. It is not necessarily a fair coin. It’s a biased coin, and you don’t know the bias. I flip the coin nine times, and the coin comes up “heads” each time. I flip the coin a tenth time. What is the probability that it comes up heads?
If you answered “ten-elevenths, by Laplace’s Rule of Succession”, you are a fine scientist in ordinary environments, but you will lose money in finance.
In finance the correct reply is, “Well… if everyone else also saw the coin coming up heads… then by now the odds are probably back to fifty-fifty.”
Right. But if it’s slightly more complicated than just looking at the coin, then suddenly we can have an edge:
1) May be not everyone can write the code to compute which way the coin is facing (algorithm). May be not everyone can see the coin (data).
2) May be other people are looking at the weather and the weather has been sunny nine days in a row.
3) May be not everyone can run their algorithm fast enough to make the trading decision in time. May be others figured out this strategy, but they’re not confident in it enough to deploy a lot of money.
So once you find your strategy, you might be in a pretty small group of people who have discovered it. So you’ll be fine in proportion to how much money is allocated to this strategy vs how much capacity it has.
And the lesson is: aim for a strategy complexity that’s simple enough to pass 2), but complicated enough that most people haven’t found it. And the bar for that is actually not that high (at least in crypto).
I’m now a father of a 3 weeks old girl. So your parenting posts are extra useful and appreciated!
I just sent them an email, volunteering to do a presentation for Richwoods HS, which is the only school close enough to me. Let’s see what happens.