Re 17: You are right to be skeptical, because my methodology for this one was silly and ad hoc. I somewhat arbitrarily turned a 92% chance that unemployment never goes above 6% into a 80% chance that unemployment isn’t above 5% in December. This is completely unprincipled, but I didn’t have any better ideas, and the alternative was to ignore the Kalshi market completely and defer entirely to the 5 betters on Manifold, which seemed worse. If you have a more reasonable way of getting a number here, I’ll happily defer to it.
Re 15: Thanks! I’ll edit that number in and point to your comment.
Thanks also for the work you put into doing this last year! That post (along with Zvi’s re-predictions) led to me running a small prediction contest with a handful of friends. That went well, was a lot of fun, and straightforwardly grew into me asking Scott if he wanted me and Eric to run the same thing for the ACX community. So, making up some numbers and hoping I can use Shapley values correctly, I estimate that you get 40% of the credit for this year’s prediction contest happening.
Thanks for this feedback!
Re 17: You are right to be skeptical, because my methodology for this one was silly and ad hoc. I somewhat arbitrarily turned a 92% chance that unemployment never goes above 6% into a 80% chance that unemployment isn’t above 5% in December. This is completely unprincipled, but I didn’t have any better ideas, and the alternative was to ignore the Kalshi market completely and defer entirely to the 5 betters on Manifold, which seemed worse. If you have a more reasonable way of getting a number here, I’ll happily defer to it.
Re 15: Thanks! I’ll edit that number in and point to your comment.
Thanks also for the work you put into doing this last year! That post (along with Zvi’s re-predictions) led to me running a small prediction contest with a handful of friends. That went well, was a lot of fun, and straightforwardly grew into me asking Scott if he wanted me and Eric to run the same thing for the ACX community. So, making up some numbers and hoping I can use Shapley values correctly, I estimate that you get 40% of the credit for this year’s prediction contest happening.