If AIs that are about as good as humans at broad skills (e.g. software engineering, ML research, computer security, all remote jobs) exist for several years before AIs that are wildly superhuman
I’m curious how likely you think this is, and also whether you have a favorite writeup arguing that it’s plausible? I’d be interested to read it.
Incidentally, these two write-ups are written from a perspective where it would take many years at the current rate of progress to get between those two milestones, but where AI automating AI R&D causes it to happen much faster; this conversation here hasn’t mentioned that argument, but it seems pretty important as an argument for rapid progress around human-level-ish AI.
It’s hard for me to give a probability because I would have to properly operationalize. Maybe I want to say my median length of time that such systems exist before AIs that are qualitatively superhuman in ways that make it way harder to prevent AI takeover is like 18 months. But you should think of this as me saying a vibe rather than a precise position.
I’m curious how likely you think this is, and also whether you have a favorite writeup arguing that it’s plausible? I’d be interested to read it.
Re writeups, I recommend either of:
https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast
https://www.forethought.org/research/how-quick-and-big-would-a-software-intelligence-explosion-be
Incidentally, these two write-ups are written from a perspective where it would take many years at the current rate of progress to get between those two milestones, but where AI automating AI R&D causes it to happen much faster; this conversation here hasn’t mentioned that argument, but it seems pretty important as an argument for rapid progress around human-level-ish AI.
It’s hard for me to give a probability because I would have to properly operationalize. Maybe I want to say my median length of time that such systems exist before AIs that are qualitatively superhuman in ways that make it way harder to prevent AI takeover is like 18 months. But you should think of this as me saying a vibe rather than a precise position.