Incidentally, these two write-ups are written from a perspective where it would take many years at the current rate of progress to get between those two milestones, but where AI automating AI R&D causes it to happen much faster; this conversation here hasn’t mentioned that argument, but it seems pretty important as an argument for rapid progress around human-level-ish AI.
Re writeups, I recommend either of:
https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast
https://www.forethought.org/research/how-quick-and-big-would-a-software-intelligence-explosion-be
Incidentally, these two write-ups are written from a perspective where it would take many years at the current rate of progress to get between those two milestones, but where AI automating AI R&D causes it to happen much faster; this conversation here hasn’t mentioned that argument, but it seems pretty important as an argument for rapid progress around human-level-ish AI.