It’s hard for me to give a probability because I would have to properly operationalize. Maybe I want to say my median length of time that such systems exist before AIs that are qualitatively superhuman in ways that make it way harder to prevent AI takeover is like 18 months. But you should think of this as me saying a vibe rather than a precise position.
It’s hard for me to give a probability because I would have to properly operationalize. Maybe I want to say my median length of time that such systems exist before AIs that are qualitatively superhuman in ways that make it way harder to prevent AI takeover is like 18 months. But you should think of this as me saying a vibe rather than a precise position.