I’m surprised to see no discussion here or on Substack.
This is a well-structured article with accurate citations, clearly explained reasoning, and a peer review.. that updates the best agi timeline model.
I’m really confused.
I haven’t deeply checked the logic to say if the update is reasonable (that’s exactly the kind of conversation I was expecting in the comments). But I agree that Davidson’s model was previously the best estimate we had, and it’s cool to see that this updated version exlains why Dario/Sama are so confident.
Overall, this is excellent work, and I’m genuinely puzzled as to why it has received 10x fewer upvotes than the recent fictional 2y takeover scenario.
Appreciate it. My sense is that the LW feed doesn’t prioritize recent posts if they have low karma, so it’s hard to get visibility on posts that aren’t widely shared elsewhere and upvoted as a result. If you think it’s a good post, please send it around!
It’s hard to empathise with dry numbers, whereas a lively scenario creates an emotional response so more people engage. But I agree that this seems to be very well done statistical work.
I’m surprised to see no discussion here or on Substack.
This is a well-structured article with accurate citations, clearly explained reasoning, and a peer review.. that updates the best agi timeline model.
I’m really confused.
I haven’t deeply checked the logic to say if the update is reasonable (that’s exactly the kind of conversation I was expecting in the comments). But I agree that Davidson’s model was previously the best estimate we had, and it’s cool to see that this updated version exlains why Dario/Sama are so confident.
Overall, this is excellent work, and I’m genuinely puzzled as to why it has received 10x fewer upvotes than the recent fictional 2y takeover scenario.
For my part I just somehow never saw this. Dunno why. Maybe I was busy and didn’t check LW for a while idk.
Appreciate it. My sense is that the LW feed doesn’t prioritize recent posts if they have low karma, so it’s hard to get visibility on posts that aren’t widely shared elsewhere and upvoted as a result. If you think it’s a good post, please send it around!
It’s hard to empathise with dry numbers, whereas a lively scenario creates an emotional response so more people engage. But I agree that this seems to be very well done statistical work.