I’m surprised to see no discussion here or on Substack.
This is a well-structured article with accurate citations, clearly explained reasoning, and a peer review.. that updates the best agi timeline model.
I’m really confused.
I haven’t deeply checked the logic to say if the update is reasonable (that’s exactly the kind of conversation I was expecting in the comments). But I agree that Davidson’s model was previously the best estimate we had, and it’s cool to see that this updated version exlains why Dario/Sama are so confident.
Overall, this is excellent work, and I’m genuinely puzzled as to why it has received 10x fewer upvotes than the recent fictional 2y takeover scenario.
Seems so
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/zuckerbergs-dystopian-ai-vision
”In some ways this is a microcosm of key parts of the alignment problem. I can see the problems Zuckerberg thinks he is solving, the value he thinks or claims he is providing. I can think of versions of these approaches that would indeed be ‘friendly’ to actual humans, and make their lives better, and which could actually get built.
Instead, on top of the commercial incentives, all the thinking feels alien. The optimization targets are subtly wrong. There is the assumption that the map corresponds to the territory, that people will know what is good for them so any ‘choices’ you convince them to make must be good for them, no matter how distorted you make the landscape, without worry about addiction to Skinner boxes or myopia or other forms of predation. That the collective social dynamics of adding AI into the mix in these ways won’t get twisted in ways that make everyone worse off.
And of course, there’s the continuing to model the future world as similar and ignoring the actual implications of the level of machine intelligence we should expect.
I do think there are ways to do AI therapists, AI ‘friends,’ AI curation of feeds and AI coordination of social worlds, and so on, that contribute to human flourishing, that would be great, and that could totally be done by Meta. I do not expect it to be at all similar to the one Meta actually builds.”