A friend’s manager tasked them with estimating ~10 parameters for a model. Choosing a single parameter very-incorrectly would presumably make the bottom line nonsense. My friend largely didn’t understand the model and what the parameters meant; if you’d asked them “can you confidently determine what each of the parameters means” presumably they would have noticed the answer was no. (If I understand the situation correctly, it was crazy for the manager to expect my friend to do this task.) They should have told their manager “I can’t do this” or “I’m uncertain about what these four parameters are; here’s my best guess of a very precise description for each; please check this carefully and let me know.” Instead I think they just gave their best guess for the parameters! (Edit: also I think they thought the model was bad but I don’t think they told their manager that.)
Another friend’s manager tasked them with estimating how many hours it would take to evaluate applications for their org’s hiring round. If my friend had known details of the application process, they could have estimated the number of applicants at each stage and the time to review each applicant at each stage. But the org hadn’t decided what the stages were yet. They should have told their manager “I can’t do this — but if evaluation-time is a crux for what-the-application-process-should-look-like, I can brainstorm several possibilities (or you can tell me the top possibilities) and estimate evaluation-time for each.” Instead I think they either made up a mainline process and made an estimate for that or made up several possibilities and made an estimate for each (without checking in with the manager), not sure.
Both friends are smart, very involved in the EA/rationality community, and working at AI safety orgs.
I’d totally avoid making these mistakes. What’s going on here?
Some hypotheses (not exclusive):
Generally insufficient communication with manager
It’s crazy that they tell me about this stuff and don’t tell their managers? Actually maybe they didn’t notice the problems until i said “wait what, how are you supposed to do that.” But after that they still didn’t put the tasks on hold and tell their managers!
Generally insufficient [disagreeableness / force of will / willingness to contradict manager]
Thinking you’re being graded on a curve, rather than realizing that when you’re estimating a bottom-line-number-to-inform-decisions, what matters is how accurate it is — sometimes getting 9⁄10 answers right is no better than 0⁄10; if you’re in such a situation and you probably won’t get 10⁄10 you have to say “I can’t do this” rather than just do your best
Lack of heroic responsibility; thinking what your manager wants is for you to do the task they told you to rather than do so if you straightforwardly can without wasting time, and otherwise check in
Anyway this shortform was prompted by world-modeling curiosity but there are some upshots:
Managees, check in with your managers when (1) you think you shouldn’t be doing this task and your manager doesn’t understand why or (2) you’re going to spend time doing stuff and you’re not sure what your manager wants and a quick DM would tell you
Managers, cause your managees to check in with you! Some of them aren’t doing so enough! Even though you’ve already nudged them to do so more and they agreed! You’re leaving lots of value on the table!
but that’s not all of it; there’s also the skill of noticing when there’s an issue.
I’d also be interested in utterances I can utter at friends in such situations to fix the problem, but I doubt I can do much better than “it seems like there’s an issue, X; if you agree you should obviously check in with your manager.”
(1) Time. You get asked to do something. You dont get the full info dump in the meeting so you say yes and go off hopeful that you can find the stuff you need. Other responsibilies mean you dont get around to looking everything up until time has passed. It is at that stage that you realise the hiring process hasnt even been finalised or that even one wrong parameter out of 10 confusing parameters would be bad. But now its mildly awkard to go back and explain this—they gave this to you on Thursday, its now Monday.
(2) Story Noise. When you were told these stories by freinds, they only gave the salient details, not a word for word repeat of everything that was said. But, at the time they experienced it word by word, they didnt know what the story beats were yet. Some of those details were just distractions, but some of them might be semi relevant. I know when i tell stories i simplify, and sometimes people assume specific solutions are possible or desrieble because of details they dont know.
Both of these are quite believable. It took me a LONG time to get to a maturity/confidence level where I can say (still not comfortably, but I recognize that it must happen for good outcomes) “I’m just getting to this now, and I’m sorry I didn’t notice earlier that I don’t fully understand X and Y. Can you help clarify what’s the purpose/expectation/methodology for this?”
I think the “noticing” part can vary a LOT based on the implied reason for the manager’s request, and the cost/reward function of how close to “correct” the predictions are. There’s a whole lot of tasks in most corporate environments that really make no difference, and just having AN answer is good enough. An interested, conscientious employee would be sure this was the case before continuing, though.
The real puzzle is what is the blocker for just asking the manager for details (or the reason for lack of details). I didn’t work in big, formal, organizations until I was pretty senior, so I’ve always seen managers as a peer and partner in delivering value, not as a director of my work or bottleneck for my understanding. This has served me well, and I’m often surprised that much less than half of my current coworkers operate this way. “I need a bit more information to do a good job on this task” is about the bare minimum I’d expect someone to say in such a situation, and I’d usually say “do we have more functional requirements or background information on this? I can make something up, but I’d really like to understand how my answer will be used”.
Especially for the estimating parameters for a model question, I don’t understand why one wouldn’t ask for more information about the task and semantics of the parameters. If it were a coworker of mine, I’d mention it in a 1:1 that they need to take more ownership and ask questions when they don’t understand.
Then I’m even more confused about the lack of cooperative-problem-solving between managers and employees. In fact, with fewer than 20 employees, why even HAVE a formal manager? You need some leaders to help prioritize and set direction, but no line-management or task breakdowns.
Topic: workplace world-modeling
A friend’s manager tasked them with estimating ~10 parameters for a model. Choosing a single parameter very-incorrectly would presumably make the bottom line nonsense. My friend largely didn’t understand the model and what the parameters meant; if you’d asked them “can you confidently determine what each of the parameters means” presumably they would have noticed the answer was no. (If I understand the situation correctly, it was crazy for the manager to expect my friend to do this task.) They should have told their manager “I can’t do this” or “I’m uncertain about what these four parameters are; here’s my best guess of a very precise description for each; please check this carefully and let me know.” Instead I think they just gave their best guess for the parameters! (Edit: also I think they thought the model was bad but I don’t think they told their manager that.)
Another friend’s manager tasked them with estimating how many hours it would take to evaluate applications for their org’s hiring round. If my friend had known details of the application process, they could have estimated the number of applicants at each stage and the time to review each applicant at each stage. But the org hadn’t decided what the stages were yet. They should have told their manager “I can’t do this — but if evaluation-time is a crux for what-the-application-process-should-look-like, I can brainstorm several possibilities (or you can tell me the top possibilities) and estimate evaluation-time for each.” Instead I think they either made up a mainline process and made an estimate for that or made up several possibilities and made an estimate for each (without checking in with the manager), not sure.
Both friends are smart, very involved in the EA/rationality community, and working at AI safety orgs.
I’d totally avoid making these mistakes. What’s going on here?
Some hypotheses (not exclusive):
Generally insufficient communication with manager
It’s crazy that they tell me about this stuff and don’t tell their managers? Actually maybe they didn’t notice the problems until i said “wait what, how are you supposed to do that.” But after that they still didn’t put the tasks on hold and tell their managers!
Generally insufficient [disagreeableness / force of will / willingness to contradict manager]
Thinking you’re being graded on a curve, rather than realizing that when you’re estimating a bottom-line-number-to-inform-decisions, what matters is how accurate it is — sometimes getting 9⁄10 answers right is no better than 0⁄10; if you’re in such a situation and you probably won’t get 10⁄10 you have to say “I can’t do this” rather than just do your best
Lack of heroic responsibility; thinking what your manager wants is for you to do the task they told you to rather than do so if you straightforwardly can without wasting time, and otherwise check in
Anyway this shortform was prompted by world-modeling curiosity but there are some upshots:
Managees, check in with your managers when (1) you think you shouldn’t be doing this task and your manager doesn’t understand why or (2) you’re going to spend time doing stuff and you’re not sure what your manager wants and a quick DM would tell you
Managers, cause your managees to check in with you! Some of them aren’t doing so enough! Even though you’ve already nudged them to do so more and they agreed! You’re leaving lots of value on the table!
but that’s not all of it; there’s also the skill of noticing when there’s an issue.
I’d also be interested in utterances I can utter at friends in such situations to fix the problem, but I doubt I can do much better than “it seems like there’s an issue, X; if you agree you should obviously check in with your manager.”
My quick thoughts on why this happens.
(1) Time. You get asked to do something. You dont get the full info dump in the meeting so you say yes and go off hopeful that you can find the stuff you need. Other responsibilies mean you dont get around to looking everything up until time has passed. It is at that stage that you realise the hiring process hasnt even been finalised or that even one wrong parameter out of 10 confusing parameters would be bad. But now its mildly awkard to go back and explain this—they gave this to you on Thursday, its now Monday.
(2) Story Noise. When you were told these stories by freinds, they only gave the salient details, not a word for word repeat of everything that was said. But, at the time they experienced it word by word, they didnt know what the story beats were yet. Some of those details were just distractions, but some of them might be semi relevant. I know when i tell stories i simplify, and sometimes people assume specific solutions are possible or desrieble because of details they dont know.
Both of these are quite believable. It took me a LONG time to get to a maturity/confidence level where I can say (still not comfortably, but I recognize that it must happen for good outcomes) “I’m just getting to this now, and I’m sorry I didn’t notice earlier that I don’t fully understand X and Y. Can you help clarify what’s the purpose/expectation/methodology for this?”
I think the “noticing” part can vary a LOT based on the implied reason for the manager’s request, and the cost/reward function of how close to “correct” the predictions are. There’s a whole lot of tasks in most corporate environments that really make no difference, and just having AN answer is good enough. An interested, conscientious employee would be sure this was the case before continuing, though.
The real puzzle is what is the blocker for just asking the manager for details (or the reason for lack of details). I didn’t work in big, formal, organizations until I was pretty senior, so I’ve always seen managers as a peer and partner in delivering value, not as a director of my work or bottleneck for my understanding. This has served me well, and I’m often surprised that much less than half of my current coworkers operate this way. “I need a bit more information to do a good job on this task” is about the bare minimum I’d expect someone to say in such a situation, and I’d usually say “do we have more functional requirements or background information on this? I can make something up, but I’d really like to understand how my answer will be used”.
Especially for the estimating parameters for a model question, I don’t understand why one wouldn’t ask for more information about the task and semantics of the parameters. If it were a coworker of mine, I’d mention it in a 1:1 that they need to take more ownership and ask questions when they don’t understand.
(Clarification: these are EA, AI safety orgs with ~10-15 employees.)
Then I’m even more confused about the lack of cooperative-problem-solving between managers and employees. In fact, with fewer than 20 employees, why even HAVE a formal manager? You need some leaders to help prioritize and set direction, but no line-management or task breakdowns.