Oh cool, yeah I’m happy to bet with you on that I think. What would the exact terms be? 8+ hour horizon length AI by mid-2027?
I sure hope neuralese doesn’t work, and agree it hasn’t been working so far. In general I really hope you are right about the incoming wall that deep learning is about to hit, but I don’t think you are, deep learning has smashed through so many alleged walls recently.
That’s way below the slower exponential, I think I need slightly more favorable terms for 50:50.
I would take that bet if EITHER the resolution is end of March 2027 rather than mid-2027 or the number is 12+, both of which are still substantially below the slower exponential.
Since all these dates are pretty far out I’d bet, say, 250 USD.
I also hope I’m right, but I don’t necessarily except deep learning to hit a wall, only the current paradigm within deep learning.
Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
The 4-month doubling trend implies getting 8h+ horizon length by early 2026 and an order of magnitude more by mid-2027. If the best time horizon length in mid-2027 would be 9h, would you feel like you had won the argument, even if you had won the bet?
I interpret my opponent here as saying things will go slower than the 7-month doubling trend, not as saying that things will go slower than the 4-month doubling trend.
That said if it’s 9hr then it’s basically right on the line between winning and losing the bet, only a very weak winning of the bet, so no I wouldn’t really think of myself as having won the argument.
Oh cool, yeah I’m happy to bet with you on that I think. What would the exact terms be? 8+ hour horizon length AI by mid-2027?
I sure hope neuralese doesn’t work, and agree it hasn’t been working so far. In general I really hope you are right about the incoming wall that deep learning is about to hit, but I don’t think you are, deep learning has smashed through so many alleged walls recently.
That’s way below the slower exponential, I think I need slightly more favorable terms for 50:50.
I would take that bet if EITHER the resolution is end of March 2027 rather than mid-2027 or the number is 12+, both of which are still substantially below the slower exponential.
Since all these dates are pretty far out I’d bet, say, 250 USD.
I also hope I’m right, but I don’t necessarily except deep learning to hit a wall, only the current paradigm within deep learning.
Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
Deal. Thanks!
Please let me know soon if you want any part of the description modified.
The 4-month doubling trend implies getting 8h+ horizon length by early 2026 and an order of magnitude more by mid-2027. If the best time horizon length in mid-2027 would be 9h, would you feel like you had won the argument, even if you had won the bet?
I interpret my opponent here as saying things will go slower than the 7-month doubling trend, not as saying that things will go slower than the 4-month doubling trend.
That said if it’s 9hr then it’s basically right on the line between winning and losing the bet, only a very weak winning of the bet, so no I wouldn’t really think of myself as having won the argument.