Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
Deal. Thanks!
Please let me know soon if you want any part of the description modified.