The 4-month doubling trend implies getting 8h+ horizon length by early 2026 and an order of magnitude more by mid-2027. If the best time horizon length in mid-2027 would be 9h, would you feel like you had won the argument, even if you had won the bet?
I interpret my opponent here as saying things will go slower than the 7-month doubling trend, not as saying that things will go slower than the 4-month doubling trend.
That said if it’s 9hr then it’s basically right on the line between winning and losing the bet, only a very weak winning of the bet, so no I wouldn’t really think of myself as having won the argument.
The 4-month doubling trend implies getting 8h+ horizon length by early 2026 and an order of magnitude more by mid-2027. If the best time horizon length in mid-2027 would be 9h, would you feel like you had won the argument, even if you had won the bet?
I interpret my opponent here as saying things will go slower than the 7-month doubling trend, not as saying that things will go slower than the 4-month doubling trend.
That said if it’s 9hr then it’s basically right on the line between winning and losing the bet, only a very weak winning of the bet, so no I wouldn’t really think of myself as having won the argument.