That’s way below the slower exponential, I think I need slightly more favorable terms for 50:50.
I would take that bet if EITHER the resolution is end of March 2027 rather than mid-2027 or the number is 12+, both of which are still substantially below the slower exponential.
Since all these dates are pretty far out I’d bet, say, 250 USD.
I also hope I’m right, but I don’t necessarily except deep learning to hit a wall, only the current paradigm within deep learning.
Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
That’s way below the slower exponential, I think I need slightly more favorable terms for 50:50.
I would take that bet if EITHER the resolution is end of March 2027 rather than mid-2027 or the number is 12+, both of which are still substantially below the slower exponential.
Since all these dates are pretty far out I’d bet, say, 250 USD.
I also hope I’m right, but I don’t necessarily except deep learning to hit a wall, only the current paradigm within deep learning.
Is it way below? Eyeballing the original graph from the paper, it seems like it would just be slightly below the slower exponential:
Anyhow I’m happy to take the bet at 50:50 odds for 8 hours at end of March 2027. I’m not confident I’ll win, but I think I’m somewhat more likely than not to win. 250 USD sounds good to me.
Right, I am projecting the slower exponential growth rate forward starting from this point.
I am also not confident that I will win, but I accept, let’s make a prediction market to track this specific bet (I am curious what the manifold odds will look like).
Deal. Thanks!
Please let me know soon if you want any part of the description modified.