Is Sunk Cost Fallacy a Fallacy?

I just finished the first draft of my es­say, “Are Sunk Costs Fal­la­cies?”; there is still ma­te­rial I need to go through, but the bulk of the ma­te­rial is now there. The for­mat­ting is too gnarly to post here, so I ask ev­ery­one’s for­give­ness in click­ing through.

To sum­ma­rize:

  1. sunk costs are prob­a­bly is­sues in big or­ga­ni­za­tions

    • but maybe not ones that can be helped

  2. sunk costs are not is­sues in animals

  3. they ap­pear to be in chil­dren & adults

    • but many ap­par­ent prob­lems can be ex­plained as part of a learn­ing strategy

  4. there are few clear in­di­ca­tions sunk costs are gen­uine problems

  5. much of what we call ‘sunk cost’ looks like sim­ple care­less­ness & thoughtlessness

(If any of that seems un­likely or ab­surd to you, click through. I’ve worked very hard to provide mul­ti­ple cita­tions where pos­si­ble, and ful­l­text for prac­ti­cally ev­ery­thing.)

I started this a while ago; but Luke/​SIAI paid for much of the work, and that mo­ti­va­tion plus aca­demic library ac­cess made this es­say more com­pre­hen­sive than it would have been and finished months in ad­vance.