Is Sunk Cost Fallacy a Fallacy?

I just finished the first draft of my essay, “Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?”; there is still material I need to go through, but the bulk of the material is now there. The formatting is too gnarly to post here, so I ask everyone’s forgiveness in clicking through.

To summarize:

  1. sunk costs are probably issues in big organizations

    • but maybe not ones that can be helped

  2. sunk costs are not issues in animals

  3. they appear to be in children & adults

    • but many apparent problems can be explained as part of a learning strategy

  4. there are few clear indications sunk costs are genuine problems

  5. much of what we call ‘sunk cost’ looks like simple carelessness & thoughtlessness

(If any of that seems unlikely or absurd to you, click through. I’ve worked very hard to provide multiple citations where possible, and fulltext for practically everything.)

I started this a while ago; but Luke/​SIAI paid for much of the work, and that motivation plus academic library access made this essay more comprehensive than it would have been and finished months in advance.