You should ignore the news unless it’s of historic import. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes an event of historic import.
To share a datapoint, I looked at the news, felt a bunch of grim emotions that I won’t go into, but still couldn’t think of a reason not to read about this in like 1-2 years.
I don’t think it will directly effect me or anyone I know personally, and the basic argument that “information at-the-time will be subject to extreme pressures of narrative-control” still stands.
(I will check into any hints that this will grow into a war with US or UK involved.)
I think it’s extremely useful practice to follow momentous live events, try to figure out what’s happening, and make live bets (which you can do for example by trading Russian/European stock indices and commodities). When the event of historic importance happens at your doorstep there will be even more FUD to deal with as you’re looking for critical information to make decisions, and even more emotions to control.
I know this sounds kinda morbid, but I often ask myself the following question: what would I have done if I was a rich Jew in Vienna in 1936? This is my personal bar for my own rationality. I think it is quite likely that I will face at least one decision of this magnitude in my life, and my ability to be rational then will outweigh almost everything else I do. I know that life will only give me a few practice sessions for this event, like November 2016 and February 2020. I think it’s quite worth taking a couple of days to immerse yourself in the news because it’s hard to do right now.
George Mikes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mikes) told the story of a friend of his in Hungary who was convinced that war was imminent in 1939. Someone had told his friend that some substance, I think it was red lead, was essential to fighting wars, so even though he had no idea what red lead was he borrowed as much as he could, bought red lead, and became enormously wealthy in a very short space of time. Not sure if there’s an equivalent substance for modern armies.
Yes. I think it ultimately wasn’t a momentous historical event, especially in the short-term, but it was hard to know at the time and that’s good practice for staying rational as history is happening (or not) as well.
If you live outside of Europe and Russia and you aren’t otherwise involved with Ukraine then I think you can safely ignore the situation (unless it escalates into a WWIII-precursor, which is unlikely). If you live in Ukraine then you absolutely must pay attention to the situation.
are there parallels that a US citizen could be more directly affected by, and which could be informed by these current events in Russia/Ukraine? for example, i’m seeing people draw the link that how this Russia/Ukraine conflict proceeds will have implications for the future of China/Taiwan, which will be more directly relevant to the US. it seems to me that China has exerted far more soft power and less military power in this context so far, so my initial reaction is to think that the situations are distinct enough that one won’t substantially inform the other.
[M]y initial reaction is to think that the situations are distinct enough that one won’t substantially inform the other.
Me too. I don’t think the Russia/Ukraine conflict will have implications for the future of China/Taiwan (except insofar as all of geopolitics is interconnected).
I don’t think it will directly effect me or anyone I know personally
This seems to be the prevailing opinion in the comment section here. And people seem pretty confident in it. It’s not clear to me why this confidence is justified though. I’d love to hear more about why people feel confident.
(I’m not trying to imply that people shouldn’t be confident. I suspect that people are perhaps moderately overconfident, but that is a relatively weak suspicion. I don’t really know much about this stuff.)
I’m ok right now, and thank you a lot for your concern.
I thought about writing something, but I’m thinking much more short-term & not unbiasedly. We’re ~ 15km outside Kyiv, which has been striked, and ~ 10km outside Brovary (also), so we have heard explosions but not seen any yet. Going down to the cellar occasionally (it gets furnished ever cosier), not thinking about work (Because Nerves), checking up with relatives. There’s nothing much to do. Can’t run—the roads are congested & trains are being cancelled, and I don’t feel like I can join a guerilla team because of my family. I know some LW-reading people in Kharkiv who are sure to have it worse.
People are reacting in wildly different ways, of course. We check the news often. In my bubble there is also talk about how this is going to affect sending the next Antarctic research team to the station (to relieve the guys there); street warfare; the situation at the Chernobyl atomic station now that it is taken by the Russians; donations for the Army (blood, money, transport etc.); the position of Nature’s editorial team re:situation in Ukraine (oddly pro-Russian); house pets (many bomb shelters will let you in with one); prayers; mail delivery delays; children’s emotions after watching the news; (often suspended) education; and soon, I expect (edit after autocorrection to “except” :) ), gardening.
The rumor has it this night will be hard, but then again, it’s a rumor.
I am not sure whether this algorithm was wrong, but it does sure seem like given the increased risk of nuclear war, this did relatively quickly develop into something that was worth paying attention to.
I don’t think agree with ‘relatively’ quickly, it took about 7 months. Then, when I tried to learn about the nuclear risk I was facing, almost all info about the war was not relevant, essentially it was just the fact that the Russian leader of the government had explicitly and extremely visibly threatened to use nukes.
The rest of the info I needed was not to do with the ongoing war, it was:
A little historical info about how MAD-escalation can happen with US/Russia
Finding out that where I am based (Bay Area) has historically been considered in the top 5-10 targets in the US
I still know essentially nothing about the war or how it’s playing out in those countries and in broad international politics, and don’t think this has been a mistake. I am currently standing by my algorithm.
A lot of people brought up sanctions, and they could indeed influence European economy/politics.
I would be curious about what sanctions in particular are likely to be implemented, and what are their implications—a major economic setback/energy prices soaring could radicalize European politics perhaps?
My guess would be that overall the whole event increases support for conservative/nationalist/populist parties—for example, even though Hungary’s populist government was trying to appear to be balancing “between the West and Russia” (thus now being in an uncomfortable situation), I think they can probably actually spin it around to their advantage. (Perhaps even more so, if they can fearmonger about refugees.)
The current Polish government is very much conservative, right-wing, and populist but they clearly voice support for Ukraine and criticize Putin’s actions (which does not necessarily mean they’re going to do anything substantial about it).
I think the point was less about a problem with refugees (which should be solved in time with European coordination), maybe more that the whole invasion is “good news” for conservative parties, as most crises are.
I think the EU will have to impose heavy sanctions and deal with a refugee crisis. Given German dependence on Russian gas this could lead to a local/global recession. Hopefully, that’s the extent of it.
I think it could have indirect effects on you and people you know personally because of sanctions against Russia and Russia’s countermoves against those sanctions. That are the key informations to watch the next days and weeks.
To share a datapoint, I looked at the news, felt a bunch of grim emotions that I won’t go into, but still couldn’t think of a reason not to read about this in like 1-2 years.
I don’t think it will directly effect me or anyone I know personally, and the basic argument that “information at-the-time will be subject to extreme pressures of narrative-control” still stands.
(I will check into any hints that this will grow into a war with US or UK involved.)
I think it’s extremely useful practice to follow momentous live events, try to figure out what’s happening, and make live bets (which you can do for example by trading Russian/European stock indices and commodities). When the event of historic importance happens at your doorstep there will be even more FUD to deal with as you’re looking for critical information to make decisions, and even more emotions to control.
I know this sounds kinda morbid, but I often ask myself the following question: what would I have done if I was a rich Jew in Vienna in 1936? This is my personal bar for my own rationality. I think it is quite likely that I will face at least one decision of this magnitude in my life, and my ability to be rational then will outweigh almost everything else I do. I know that life will only give me a few practice sessions for this event, like November 2016 and February 2020. I think it’s quite worth taking a couple of days to immerse yourself in the news because it’s hard to do right now.
George Mikes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Mikes) told the story of a friend of his in Hungary who was convinced that war was imminent in 1939. Someone had told his friend that some substance, I think it was red lead, was essential to fighting wars, so even though he had no idea what red lead was he borrowed as much as he could, bought red lead, and became enormously wealthy in a very short space of time. Not sure if there’s an equivalent substance for modern armies.
What happened in November 2016? Election of Donald Trump?
Yes. I think it ultimately wasn’t a momentous historical event, especially in the short-term, but it was hard to know at the time and that’s good practice for staying rational as history is happening (or not) as well.
This exactly.
If you live outside of Europe and Russia and you aren’t otherwise involved with Ukraine then I think you can safely ignore the situation (unless it escalates into a WWIII-precursor, which is unlikely). If you live in Ukraine then you absolutely must pay attention to the situation.
Certainly.
(Example of a thing that meets my bar for thinking about: https://mobile.twitter.com/SamoBurja/status/1497277746862444545 )
are there parallels that a US citizen could be more directly affected by, and which could be informed by these current events in Russia/Ukraine? for example, i’m seeing people draw the link that how this Russia/Ukraine conflict proceeds will have implications for the future of China/Taiwan, which will be more directly relevant to the US. it seems to me that China has exerted far more soft power and less military power in this context so far, so my initial reaction is to think that the situations are distinct enough that one won’t substantially inform the other.
Me too. I don’t think the Russia/Ukraine conflict will have implications for the future of China/Taiwan (except insofar as all of geopolitics is interconnected).
This seems to be the prevailing opinion in the comment section here. And people seem pretty confident in it. It’s not clear to me why this confidence is justified though. I’d love to hear more about why people feel confident.
(I’m not trying to imply that people shouldn’t be confident. I suspect that people are perhaps moderately overconfident, but that is a relatively weak suspicion. I don’t really know much about this stuff.)
I mean, I hope Mary is ok.
I’m ok right now, and thank you a lot for your concern.
I thought about writing something, but I’m thinking much more short-term & not unbiasedly. We’re ~ 15km outside Kyiv, which has been striked, and ~ 10km outside Brovary (also), so we have heard explosions but not seen any yet. Going down to the cellar occasionally (it gets furnished ever cosier), not thinking about work (Because Nerves), checking up with relatives. There’s nothing much to do. Can’t run—the roads are congested & trains are being cancelled, and I don’t feel like I can join a guerilla team because of my family. I know some LW-reading people in Kharkiv who are sure to have it worse.
People are reacting in wildly different ways, of course. We check the news often. In my bubble there is also talk about how this is going to affect sending the next Antarctic research team to the station (to relieve the guys there); street warfare; the situation at the Chernobyl atomic station now that it is taken by the Russians; donations for the Army (blood, money, transport etc.); the position of Nature’s editorial team re:situation in Ukraine (oddly pro-Russian); house pets (many bomb shelters will let you in with one); prayers; mail delivery delays; children’s emotions after watching the news; (often suspended) education; and soon, I expect (edit after autocorrection to “except” :) ), gardening.
The rumor has it this night will be hard, but then again, it’s a rumor.
Stay safe, and good luck.
If anyone here happens to end up in Sweden due to the current conflict, and needs a place to stay, let me know at johan.domeij@gmail.com.
Thank you very much for your generosity. I passed it on to others in our local chat.
<3
I am not sure whether this algorithm was wrong, but it does sure seem like given the increased risk of nuclear war, this did relatively quickly develop into something that was worth paying attention to.
I don’t think agree with ‘relatively’ quickly, it took about 7 months. Then, when I tried to learn about the nuclear risk I was facing, almost all info about the war was not relevant, essentially it was just the fact that the Russian leader of the government had explicitly and extremely visibly threatened to use nukes.
The rest of the info I needed was not to do with the ongoing war, it was:
A little historical info about how MAD-escalation can happen with US/Russia
Finding out that where I am based (Bay Area) has historically been considered in the top 5-10 targets in the US
Checking what size nuke would be headed here and what places I can go to fall outside the blast radius (I now have a place prepped and set up)
A little fermi about the micromorts per hour if a tactical nuke was used to inform how quickly I should respond
I still know essentially nothing about the war or how it’s playing out in those countries and in broad international politics, and don’t think this has been a mistake. I am currently standing by my algorithm.
A lot of people brought up sanctions, and they could indeed influence European economy/politics.
I would be curious about what sanctions in particular are likely to be implemented, and what are their implications—a major economic setback/energy prices soaring could radicalize European politics perhaps?
My guess would be that overall the whole event increases support for conservative/nationalist/populist parties—for example, even though Hungary’s populist government was trying to appear to be balancing “between the West and Russia” (thus now being in an uncomfortable situation), I think they can probably actually spin it around to their advantage. (Perhaps even more so, if they can fearmonger about refugees.)
The current Polish government is very much conservative, right-wing, and populist but they clearly voice support for Ukraine and criticize Putin’s actions (which does not necessarily mean they’re going to do anything substantial about it).
I think the point was less about a problem with refugees (which should be solved in time with European coordination), maybe more that the whole invasion is “good news” for conservative parties, as most crises are.
I think the EU will have to impose heavy sanctions and deal with a refugee crisis. Given German dependence on Russian gas this could lead to a local/global recession. Hopefully, that’s the extent of it.
I think it could have indirect effects on you and people you know personally because of sanctions against Russia and Russia’s countermoves against those sanctions. That are the key informations to watch the next days and weeks.