I suspect that we’ll end up in Plan E for two different reasons and would like @Daniel Kokotajlo to comment on them.
Assuming superhuman coders in 2030 instead of 2027, we are likely to see Taiwan being invaded, forcing the USA and China to build compute factories at home. While the AI-2027 scenario assumed that Taiwan wouldn’t be invaded and that OpenBrain would obtain a lion’s share of compute, GPT-5 estimates that the ratio of compute produced in the USA and in China is between 1:1 and 4:1, and not 5:1 as in AI-2027.[1] If China merges its companies and the USA don’t do so, then the leadership will likely be seceded to China.
By 2030 we’ll also have to account for America being in far bigger trouble than China. If risks related to America’s weakness somehow improve the positions of accelerationists (e.g. in Buck’s existential war regime, which might be caused by the Russia-India-China axis. Or if the USA are sent on the edge of collapse due to internal problems. Or if NVIDIA lobbyists let the company sell compute to both countries), then the leadr won’t be able to slow down.
I think Taiwan invasion is very plausible but I wouldn’t say it’s likely by 2030 even assuming superhuman coders. Maybe 50/50?
I agree that in the 2030s, especially the late 2030s, the US might be in big trouble w.r.t. competition with China. Not confident of course, the future is uncertain.
Overall I think plan E is quite plausible; Ryan’s breakdown of probabilities overall seems reasonable to me (I might put a bit more into Plan A)
I suspect that we’ll end up in Plan E for two different reasons and would like @Daniel Kokotajlo to comment on them.
Assuming superhuman coders in 2030 instead of 2027, we are likely to see Taiwan being invaded, forcing the USA and China to build compute factories at home. While the AI-2027 scenario assumed that Taiwan wouldn’t be invaded and that OpenBrain would obtain a lion’s share of compute, GPT-5 estimates that the ratio of compute produced in the USA and in China is between 1:1 and 4:1, and not 5:1 as in AI-2027.[1] If China merges its companies and the USA don’t do so, then the leadership will likely be seceded to China.
By 2030 we’ll also have to account for America being in far bigger trouble than China. If risks related to America’s weakness somehow improve the positions of accelerationists (e.g. in Buck’s existential war regime, which might be caused by the Russia-India-China axis. Or if the USA are sent on the edge of collapse due to internal problems. Or if NVIDIA lobbyists let the company sell compute to both countries), then the leadr won’t be able to slow down.
In the AI-2027 forecast the USA received the 5:1 compute from Taiwan, which I assume being invaded.
I think Taiwan invasion is very plausible but I wouldn’t say it’s likely by 2030 even assuming superhuman coders. Maybe 50/50?
I agree that in the 2030s, especially the late 2030s, the US might be in big trouble w.r.t. competition with China. Not confident of course, the future is uncertain.
Overall I think plan E is quite plausible; Ryan’s breakdown of probabilities overall seems reasonable to me (I might put a bit more into Plan A)
Is it likely that the USA in in big trouble before 2030? If it is, then it might, say, prompt the invasion or prompt AI companies to race hard...