I think Taiwan invasion is very plausible but I wouldn’t say it’s likely by 2030 even assuming superhuman coders. Maybe 50/50?
I agree that in the 2030s, especially the late 2030s, the US might be in big trouble w.r.t. competition with China. Not confident of course, the future is uncertain.
Overall I think plan E is quite plausible; Ryan’s breakdown of probabilities overall seems reasonable to me (I might put a bit more into Plan A)
I think Taiwan invasion is very plausible but I wouldn’t say it’s likely by 2030 even assuming superhuman coders. Maybe 50/50?
I agree that in the 2030s, especially the late 2030s, the US might be in big trouble w.r.t. competition with China. Not confident of course, the future is uncertain.
Overall I think plan E is quite plausible; Ryan’s breakdown of probabilities overall seems reasonable to me (I might put a bit more into Plan A)
Is it likely that the USA in in big trouble before 2030? If it is, then it might, say, prompt the invasion or prompt AI companies to race hard...