However, the authors of AI 2027 predict pretty radical superintelligence before 2030, which does not seem to be justified by the plot. Arguably, since the plot is focused on software engineering tasks, the most relevant comparison is actually their prediction for human level software engineers, which is I believe is around 2026-2028 (clearly inconsistent with the plot).
Our rationale for why we extend the trend in the way that we do can be found in our timelines forecast. In short, we adjust for (a) the possible trend speedup to a ~4 month doubling time as in the 2024-2025 trend (b) the possibility of further superexponentiality (c) intermediate speedups from AIs that aren’t yet superhuman coders. Fair if you disagree, but we do explain how we expect things to deviate from the plot you included.
Indeed, the content of AI 2027 was all but finalized before the METR report came out. Like Eli said if you want to know where our timelines are coming from, there’s a page on the website for that.
Indeed it did! I remember saying to someone (maybe Beth? I forget) that seeing that graph made me feel slightly relieved. When we started writing AI-2027, my median AGI arrival date was 2027; now it’s 2028. (Though most of the update happened for other reasons besides the METR graph)
Our rationale for why we extend the trend in the way that we do can be found in our timelines forecast. In short, we adjust for (a) the possible trend speedup to a ~4 month doubling time as in the 2024-2025 trend (b) the possibility of further superexponentiality (c) intermediate speedups from AIs that aren’t yet superhuman coders. Fair if you disagree, but we do explain how we expect things to deviate from the plot you included.
I think it was a mistake to focus particularly on AI 2027 when the METR report does not seem to play a prominent role there.
Indeed, the content of AI 2027 was all but finalized before the METR report came out. Like Eli said if you want to know where our timelines are coming from, there’s a page on the website for that.
Does the METR report then update you towards later timelines?
(I am not saying it necessarily should, since obviously I have some doubts about the strength of its evidence)
Indeed it did! I remember saying to someone (maybe Beth? I forget) that seeing that graph made me feel slightly relieved. When we started writing AI-2027, my median AGI arrival date was 2027; now it’s 2028. (Though most of the update happened for other reasons besides the METR graph)