Indeed, the content of AI 2027 was all but finalized before the METR report came out. Like Eli said if you want to know where our timelines are coming from, there’s a page on the website for that.
Indeed it did! I remember saying to someone (maybe Beth? I forget) that seeing that graph made me feel slightly relieved. When we started writing AI-2027, my median AGI arrival date was 2027; now it’s 2028. (Though most of the update happened for other reasons besides the METR graph)
Indeed, the content of AI 2027 was all but finalized before the METR report came out. Like Eli said if you want to know where our timelines are coming from, there’s a page on the website for that.
Does the METR report then update you towards later timelines?
(I am not saying it necessarily should, since obviously I have some doubts about the strength of its evidence)
Indeed it did! I remember saying to someone (maybe Beth? I forget) that seeing that graph made me feel slightly relieved. When we started writing AI-2027, my median AGI arrival date was 2027; now it’s 2028. (Though most of the update happened for other reasons besides the METR graph)