Unclear. Either midnight or as soon as last 24 hours contain less than 6 hours of looped time. I’ve been wondering this as well. I think I remember something being said like “No combination of time-turners could let you fit more than 30 hours into a day” but I don’t know if that really helps...
TylerJay
Karma: 957
Nice. I like it.
I expanded my previous post in a full solution (very long) with a pretty thorough line of reasoning. In the end, I convinced myself that Voldemort is not acting in his self-interest by killing Harry and that he’s dangerously overconfident in his understanding of the Prophecy and his ability to avert it. Here are the relevant excerpts from my solution:
Tell Voldie that original prophecy (“born as the seventh month dies...”) has not yet been fulfilled, and argue that this calls for rethinking killing Harry because attempting to kill him might cause this prophecy to come true in a bad way and might provide mechanism for “remnant” of Harry to survive and fulfill second prophecy. [Evidence: Snape said “No, I would know if it were fulfilled.” Apparently, neither Dumbles or Minnie found anything strange with the idea that “If it were complete, it would make sense to me,” so that’s likely a known/plausible attribute of prophecies.] LV was very sure that he understood it enough to take risky action that time, but was wrong. “Seems you learned wrong lesson from previous mistake with prophecy, teacher.” Argue that it was lack of understanding of previous prophecy that led to loss of LV’s first body, not the act of trying to turn it to his advantage.
LV’s actions now are driven solely by prophecy. Just as before, it will make him fall victim to it. How can you not realize you’re actions are being completely determined by what you heard?
Tell LV that he strongly believes that things will turn out badly for LV and the Prophecy will not be averted if he tries to kill him (Harry never meant to end his immortality, just temporarily disembody him [so the curse is still in play and LV cannot kill Harry, though my solution has Harry not share this information])
Harry has heard a third prophecy that seems to indicate that Harry will survive beyond this day. It’s better not to tempt fate. (...and 3 their devices...)
If still haven’t gotten him to give in and spare you: “Okay, seriously? You’re Trying to tell me that you still assign a greater than 50% probability to the idea that killing me here tonight is in your best interests?”
Eventually, LV will tell him the prophecy. If not, Harry can just go from his (correct) best guess based on what he heard (“Tear apart the very s-”) Stars? Sun? His first 2 thoughts when hearing it, narrowed down to Stars from Firenze’s comments, and deducing the “End the world” part from the fact that his mother said the world would end if Lilly were nice to her sister and the fact that Firenze called him “Son of Lilly”.
Explain that he’s pretty sure it says he will tear apart the very stars and that it will be the end of the world [...] Harry explains Star Lifting, Dyson Spheres, and the amount of energy required for interstellar travel or other futuristic technologies. If that’s what the prophecy means, which is way more likely than anything else at this point, since what LV was really doing was not “snipping all threads of destiny” but constraining the solution-space. If he tries/succeeds in killing Harry, then the prophecy will still come true, but neither of them would have any control over how it happened, because all choice has been removed. And, knowing the nature of Prophecy, that’s how bad things happen. So wouldn’t it be better to work together toward making sure the world doesn’t end and that Wizardkind gets a way to escape the Planet Earth, just like Voldie wants? Even if somehow Voldie manages to kill Harry tonight and the prophecy just doesn’t happen which has never happened in the history of ever, what amount of diminishing pleasure from torturing idiots could possibly be worth more than all that? And at that point, once they’ve solved permanent death for everyone, people will probably want to play War with You. They’ll be lining up by the thousands. Every clever person on the planet will want to try their skills against Lord Voldemort. I’ll play War against you for as long as you want! It’ll be fun! That’s the kind of fun you can only really have in a post-scarcity, post-death society.
I submitted it. Here’s the link to my whole solution (It’s long, with backup plans and a few unique mechanics) if you’re interested. I’m pretty proud of it, given the time constraints.
How would you distinguish you popping into existence with different qualia (and different memories/personality/etc.) from someone else popping into existence with different qualia (+memories/personality/etc.)? As others have argued, I think the flaw in the reasoning is that there is a privileged “I” that you are that is separate from the body/mind you wear.
Here’s another object-level tactic I haven’t seen mentioned yet. (Assume LV will not just kill Harry for speaking of non-magical powers. I have a way of increasing the likelihood of this assumption being true)
Harry could explain the Power of Expected Utility Calculations and subtly attempt a Pascal’s Mugging on LV, convincing him that LV can’t possibly assign a probability of less than one in twenty that killing Harry will indeed avert the prophecy, or for that matter cause it, and that the rational action to take is to not kill Harry. He can present it as a “power” to stop the timer and buy a life, regardless of if LV accepts the conclusion, since it is a valuable tool for the future and was probably not in the books Harry gave him to read.
Harry can also explain the Power of Bayesian Probability Updates, both to buy a life and to provide a framework within which to argue that the probability that LV killing Harry backfires is much higher than he previously expected. If the Mugging alone doesn’t work, then Harry can combine this with EV calculations to construct a valid argument that LV shouldn’t kill him.
I’m starting to develop a way to chain this with some other arguments and strategies into a cohesive strategy and I’m starting to feel pretty good about it. Thoughts?
I agree. This is a good line of reasoning. I was just saying that Harry has to make that argument and it’s not guaranteed LV will accept it.
Eliezer himself has a 24.5 hr sleep cycle. I think it was just that and a way to get a time turner
Voldemort will probably tell him
I don’t think that’s a foregone conclusion, and not one Harry would be willing to bet his life and the fate of the universe on. Voldemort specifically said that he doesn’t want to tell Harry because telling him could make it come true. Harry has to convince Voldie that it’s not just okay to tell him, but beneficial to his goals to tell him. That’s the kind of argument you’d have to craft here.
Last line of the article explains the motivation:
I wouldn’t mention it at all, but the inventor is not a human being and it’s a very good example of a “pure mechanical invention”.
“Stuporfy” would probably be the better option here. Yes, it’s visible, but LV doesn’t know about swerving stunners, since Flitwick never demonstrated it in public. It’s probably the best chance Harry has of triggering a resonance by casting a spell, assuming he can fire one off.
I really like the part about the original prophecy not being fulfilled yet. That’s the first thing I’ve seen that Harry can say to LV that would REALLY make him hesitate and would buy more time. Nice work!
Seconded. I don’t check Main anymore. Maybe once a month
My guess on why this is well-received is that the immediately obvious consequences are positive. You don’t have to go to work and you’re allowed to reschedule flights when you’re sick. Most people have had to work while sick, which is miserable, and a lot of people have been sick on trips, which pretty much ruins them. I don’t think the reasoning extends much beyond that.
But when you talk about indefinitely quarantining people with incurable diseases, that feels like persecution of a minority group for something outside of their control, which everyone knows is Bad™.
Also, the phrasing of the quoted comment doesn’t sound like a mandate.
...why not also require people to be able to reschedule flights if a doctor certifies they have a contagious disease?
I predict you’d get a different response if the proposition was to forbid people from flying while showing any symptoms of being sick and fining people for sneezing on an airplane.
To each his own. But if you’ve never tried them and that’s a response on principles rather than experience, you really should give them a try. You might be surprised.
My point though was that sunglasses of any kind skew color accuracy. But of the possible skews, amber-tinted sunglasses really are nice and don’t seem to detract from what you see the way gray-tinted (in reality, a strange blue-green) lenses do. I’m not talking blue-blockers here. Just regular, subtle amber/brown lenses.
Not sure why you were downvoted. Tried to reverse that for you. I agree actually. I just love the way the world looks through them, especially nature. And most sunglasses put a gray tint on the world instead of making it warmer. Why would anyone want that? That’s why I said you’d never go back once you tried it.
I second the kitchen recommendations. I’ve been slowly replacing everything with OXO Good Grips products (not knives or utensils though) over the last couple years and I couldn’t be happier with them. It’s amazing what quality design and craftsmanship can do.
I’m going to focus more on entertainment in terms of real products as I expect this category to be underrepresented in this thread:
Spotify Premium: ~$10/mo, unlimited commercial-free music streaming (+ ability to sync to mobile for offline listening). They have an enormous library. I have essentially stopped buying albums because they are all available on Spotify (might not be as useful if you listen to really obscure music, but it’s worth searching their library before buying a subscription. You may be surprised what they have. I just bought my dad (a huge audiophile and musician) a 6 month subscription for his 65th birthday and he just downloaded Rolling Stone’s top 10 albums of the year that he otherwise would have bought and is really happy with it.
Netflix: Unlimited streaming is ~$7/mo, which is all I have. They have a large library and are starting to become content producers as well as just aggregators. Of course if you’re easily seduced into binge-watching when you really want to be doing other things, it might not be a good idea. Personally, I get a lot of enjoyment out of it and it’s cheaper than one movie ticket a month. Lots of classic movies as well as more modern stuff. However, it’s relatively easy to “run out” of stuff to watch on Netflix, at which time you can just cancel your subscription.
Roku: If you don’t have a Smart TV, it’s the best of all of the 3rd party options (FireTV, AppleTV, Chromecast, etc.). Get the “Roku 3”, it’s under $100 and has access to a lot of streaming services. The best feature is “Universal Search” where you search for a title and it looks across all of the different streaming services and lets you find the cheapest (or free) offerings. (Not offered as far as I know with any of the other products because they all push their own content stores first).
Aux-port/Cigarette-lighter Car Bluetooth Adaptor: ~$30-$40. Gives you in-car bluetooth if you don’t already have it. I recommend the Belkin one on Amazon. It’s been well worth the price in terms of added convenience for me.
Windshield/Dash Suction-Cup Mount for Smartphone: Cheap. If you use your phone for driving directions, it’s much more convenient (and a lot safer) than having the phone in your lap. Keep in mind that in some areas, it may be illegal to mount it to the windshield.
Radar Detector: ~$200 – $700. Get either a Valentine or a Cobra. They’re about the cost of one speeding ticket and can help you avoid tickets. (This is not an endorsement of driving too fast of course). Valentine is simple but effective and indicates front or back direction of radar source. Expensive, but no bells and whistles. Cobra has a wide range of products with a wide range of prices. Not directional, but has lots of bells and whistles like learning false positives, traffic-cam alerts through GPS, and connection to a network for crowd-sourced data (think Waze, but for stuff like speed traps). Again, these may be illegal in your area—make sure to check first.
Tablet/e-reader: I prefer to read textbooks on a tablet and other books on my Kindle Paper-white. Had an iPad provided by my previous employer before I left and I’m really missing it more than I thought I would for textbooks. I’m looking into a new tablet and really want one with good palm-rejection and a stylus for taking notes (If anyone has suggestions, please let me know).
Textbooks: I give myself a monthly education budget and buy a new textbook (and sometimes solutions guide) every couple months. There are also free options of dubious legality like libgen.org or libgen.info. e-textbooks go great with tablets.
Wake-up light / Dawn Simulator Alarm Clock: ~$100 Some love em, some (like Eliezer) don’t get any benefit from them. I kept a sleep journal for a month and it seems to work for me. I’m in a much lighter sleep when the alarm finally goes off (if I don’t wake up naturally from the light). If you’re techy, you can build your own with an arduino or raspberry pi pretty easily. On that note...
Arduino / Raspberry Pi: ~$30-$40. Very fun if you want to learn DIY electronics. Arduino is a microcontroller whereas raspberry pi is a full computer. I’m just getting started learning embedded systems and electronics myself (taking a class on edX starting this month called “Embedded Systems”. If anyone else here on LW is planning on taking this, let me know).
My favorite fiction Novel (aside from HPMOR): The Shadow of the Wind—by Carlos Ruiz Zafon. Great story, deep characters, a love story, a mystery, and some of the most beautiful prose I’ve ever seen.
Nice sunglasses: $15 - $300. Get some brown/amber-tinted, polarized lenses with a nice lightweight aviator frame. You’ll never look back. May be a bit hard to find at the lower price point, but not impossible.
Hope some of this was helpful!
Not sure if you noticed it yourself or not, but this is probably why.
I agree. Information on the mechanism would be helpful. I’ve already used the links, but don’t know if it’s working
Yup. Part of my justifications to Harry setting the stage in 115 were (from right before this):