Probability of coming into existence again ?
This question has been bothering me for a while now, but I have the nagging feeling that I’m missing something big and that the reasoning is flawed in a very significant way. I’m not well read in philosophy at all, and I’d be really surprised if this particular problem hasn’t been addressed many times by more enlightened minds. Please don’t hesitate to give reading suggestions if you know more. I don’t even know where to start learning about such questions. I have tried the search bar but have failed to find a discussion around this specific topic.
I’ll try and explain my train of thought as best as I can but I am not familiar with formal reasoning, so bear with me! (English is not my first language, either)
Based on the information and sensations currently available, I am stuck in a specific point of view and experience specific qualia. So far, it’s the only thing that has been available to me; it is the entirety of my reality. I don’t know if the cogito ergo sum is well received on Less Wrong, but it seems on the face of it to be a compelling argument for my own existence at least.
Let’s assume that there are other conscious beings who “exist” in a similar way, and thus other possible qualia. If we don’t assume this, doesn’t it mean that we are in a dead end and no further argument is possible? Similar to what happens if there is no free will and thus nothing matters since no change is possible? Again, I am not certain about this reasoning but I can’t see the flaw so far.
There doesn’t seem to be any reason why I should be experiencing these specific qualia instead of others, that I “popped into existence” as this specific consciousness instead of another, or that I perceive time subjectively. According to what I know, the qualia will probably stop completely at some subjective point in time and I will cease to exist. The qualia are likely to be tied to a physical state of matter (for example colorblindness due to different cells in the eyes) and once the matter does not “function” or is altered, the qualia are gone. It would seem that there could be a link between the subjective and some sort of objective reality, if there is indeed such a thing.
On a side note, I think it’s safe to ignore theism and all mentions of a pleasurable afterlife of some sort. I suppose most people on this site have debated this to death elsewhere and there’s no real point in bringing it up again. I personally think it’s not an adequate solution to this problem.
Based on what I know, and that qualia occur, what is the probability (if any) that I will pop into existence again and again, and experience different qualia each time, with no subjectively perceivable connection with the “previous” consciousness? If it has happened once, if a subjective observer has emerged out of nothing at some point, and is currently observing subjectively (as I think is happening to me), does the subjective observing ever end?
I know it sounds an awful lot like mysticism and reincarnation, but since I am currently existing and observing in a subjective way (or at least I think I am), how can I be certain that it will ever stop?
The only reason why this question matters at all is because suffering is not only possible but quite frequent according to my subjective experience and my intuition of what other possible observers might be experiencing if they do exist in the same way I do. If there were no painful qualia, or no qualia at all, nothing would really matter since there would be no change needed and no concept of suffering. I don’t know how to define suffering, but I think it is a valid concept and is contained in qualia, based on my limited subjectivity.
This leads to a second, more disturbing question : does suffering have a limit or is it infinite? Is there a non zero probability to enter into existence as a being that experiences potentially infinite suffering, similar to the main character in I have no mouth and I must scream? Is there no way out of existence? If the answer is no, then how would it be possible to lead a rational life, seeing as it would be a single drop in an infinite ocean?
On a more positive note, this reasoning can serve as a strong deterrent to suicide, since it would be rationally better to prolong your current and familiar existence than to potentially enter a less fortunate one with no way to predict what might happen.
Sadly, these thoughts have shown to be a significant threat to motivation and morale. I feel stuck in this logic and can’t see a way out at the moment. If you can identify a flaw here, or know of a solution, then I eagerly await your reply.