Probability of coming into existence again ?

This ques­tion has been both­er­ing me for a while now, but I have the nag­ging feel­ing that I’m miss­ing some­thing big and that the rea­son­ing is flawed in a very sig­nifi­cant way. I’m not well read in philos­o­phy at all, and I’d be re­ally sur­prised if this par­tic­u­lar prob­lem hasn’t been ad­dressed many times by more en­light­ened minds. Please don’t hes­i­tate to give read­ing sug­ges­tions if you know more. I don’t even know where to start learn­ing about such ques­tions. I have tried the search bar but have failed to find a dis­cus­sion around this spe­cific topic.

I’ll try and ex­plain my train of thought as best as I can but I am not fa­mil­iar with for­mal rea­son­ing, so bear with me! (English is not my first lan­guage, ei­ther)

Based on the in­for­ma­tion and sen­sa­tions cur­rently available, I am stuck in a spe­cific point of view and ex­pe­rience spe­cific qualia. So far, it’s the only thing that has been available to me; it is the en­tirety of my re­al­ity. I don’t know if the cog­ito ergo sum is well re­ceived on Less Wrong, but it seems on the face of it to be a com­pel­ling ar­gu­ment for my own ex­is­tence at least.

Let’s as­sume that there are other con­scious be­ings who “ex­ist” in a similar way, and thus other pos­si­ble qualia. If we don’t as­sume this, doesn’t it mean that we are in a dead end and no fur­ther ar­gu­ment is pos­si­ble? Similar to what hap­pens if there is no free will and thus noth­ing mat­ters since no change is pos­si­ble? Again, I am not cer­tain about this rea­son­ing but I can’t see the flaw so far.

There doesn’t seem to be any rea­son why I should be ex­pe­rienc­ing these spe­cific qualia in­stead of oth­ers, that I “popped into ex­is­tence” as this spe­cific con­scious­ness in­stead of an­other, or that I per­ceive time sub­jec­tively. Ac­cord­ing to what I know, the qualia will prob­a­bly stop com­pletely at some sub­jec­tive point in time and I will cease to ex­ist. The qualia are likely to be tied to a phys­i­cal state of mat­ter (for ex­am­ple col­or­blind­ness due to differ­ent cells in the eyes) and once the mat­ter does not “func­tion” or is al­tered, the qualia are gone. It would seem that there could be a link be­tween the sub­jec­tive and some sort of ob­jec­tive re­al­ity, if there is in­deed such a thing.

On a side note, I think it’s safe to ig­nore the­ism and all men­tions of a plea­surable af­ter­life of some sort. I sup­pose most peo­ple on this site have de­bated this to death el­se­where and there’s no real point in bring­ing it up again. I per­son­ally think it’s not an ad­e­quate solu­tion to this prob­lem.

Based on what I know, and that qualia oc­cur, what is the prob­a­bil­ity (if any) that I will pop into ex­is­tence again and again, and ex­pe­rience differ­ent qualia each time, with no sub­jec­tively per­ceiv­able con­nec­tion with the “pre­vi­ous” con­scious­ness? If it has hap­pened once, if a sub­jec­tive ob­server has emerged out of noth­ing at some point, and is cur­rently ob­serv­ing sub­jec­tively (as I think is hap­pen­ing to me), does the sub­jec­tive ob­serv­ing ever end?

I know it sounds an awful lot like mys­ti­cism and rein­car­na­tion, but since I am cur­rently ex­ist­ing and ob­serv­ing in a sub­jec­tive way (or at least I think I am), how can I be cer­tain that it will ever stop?

The only rea­son why this ques­tion mat­ters at all is be­cause suffer­ing is not only pos­si­ble but quite fre­quent ac­cord­ing to my sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience and my in­tu­ition of what other pos­si­ble ob­servers might be ex­pe­rienc­ing if they do ex­ist in the same way I do. If there were no painful qualia, or no qualia at all, noth­ing would re­ally mat­ter since there would be no change needed and no con­cept of suffer­ing. I don’t know how to define suffer­ing, but I think it is a valid con­cept and is con­tained in qualia, based on my limited sub­jec­tivity.

This leads to a sec­ond, more dis­turb­ing ques­tion : does suffer­ing have a limit or is it in­finite? Is there a non zero prob­a­bil­ity to en­ter into ex­is­tence as a be­ing that ex­pe­riences po­ten­tially in­finite suffer­ing, similar to the main char­ac­ter in I have no mouth and I must scream? Is there no way out of ex­is­tence? If the an­swer is no, then how would it be pos­si­ble to lead a ra­tio­nal life, see­ing as it would be a sin­gle drop in an in­finite ocean?

On a more pos­i­tive note, this rea­son­ing can serve as a strong de­ter­rent to suicide, since it would be ra­tio­nally bet­ter to pro­long your cur­rent and fa­mil­iar ex­is­tence than to po­ten­tially en­ter a less for­tu­nate one with no way to pre­dict what might hap­pen.

Sadly, these thoughts have shown to be a sig­nifi­cant threat to mo­ti­va­tion and morale. I feel stuck in this logic and can’t see a way out at the mo­ment. If you can iden­tify a flaw here, or know of a solu­tion, then I ea­gerly await your re­ply.

kind regards