Yeah, I thought this piece struck a really nice tone and pointed to something important.
Re the counterfactual, hard to know. I was already thinking about risks from centralising AGI development, and about the ease of the leading project getting a DSA at this point. And I think Lukas was already thinking about the risk of AI-enabled coups. So I think it’s pretty unlikely that this was counterfactually responsible for the ai-enabled coups report happening vs not.
But I certainly read this piece and it influenced my thinking, and I believe Lukas read it as well. I think it made me feel more confident to lean in to disagreement with the status quo and more conviction in doing that.
I’d have thought that metr trend is largely newer models sustaining the SAME slope but for MORE TOKENS. Ie the slope goes horizontal after a bit for AI (but not for humans), and the point at which it goes horizontal is being delayed more and more