Yep, the ‘gradual boost’ section is the one for this. Also my historical work on the compute-centric model (see link in post) models gradual automation in detail.
So if you’ve fully ignored the fact that pre-ASARA systems have sped things up, then accounting for that will make takeoff less fast bc by the time ASARA comes around you’ll have already plucked much of the low-hanging fruit of software progress.
But I didn’t fully ignore that, even outside of the gradual boost section. I somewhat adjusted my estimate of r and of “distance to effective limits” to account for intermediate software progress. Then, in the gradual boost section, i got rid of these adjustments as they weren’t needed. Turned out that takeoff was then faster. My interpretation (as i say in the gradual boost section): dropping those adjustments had a bigger effect than changing the modelling.
To put it anothr way: if you run the gradual boost section but literally leave all the parameters unchanged, you’ll get a slower takeoff.
Yep, the ‘gradual boost’ section is the one for this. Also my historical work on the compute-centric model (see link in post) models gradual automation in detail.
So if you’ve fully ignored the fact that pre-ASARA systems have sped things up, then accounting for that will make takeoff less fast bc by the time ASARA comes around you’ll have already plucked much of the low-hanging fruit of software progress.
But I didn’t fully ignore that, even outside of the gradual boost section. I somewhat adjusted my estimate of r and of “distance to effective limits” to account for intermediate software progress. Then, in the gradual boost section, i got rid of these adjustments as they weren’t needed. Turned out that takeoff was then faster. My interpretation (as i say in the gradual boost section): dropping those adjustments had a bigger effect than changing the modelling.
To put it anothr way: if you run the gradual boost section but literally leave all the parameters unchanged, you’ll get a slower takeoff.