I think you are playing a rhetorical game with the reference to the weathermen as a counter example because many members of the group are today successful and have high prestige positions.
The question is not did some level of participation in this group ruin the lives of all individuals involved in the group. The question is did the violence of the group lead to their aims to come closer to being achieved.
You might capture value out of that relative to broad equities if the world ends up both severely deflationary due to falling costs, and where current publicly traded companies are mostly unable to compete in the new context.
Yeah, but assuming your p(doom) isn’t really high, this needs to balanced against the chance that AI goes well, and your kid has a really, really, really good life.
I don’t expect my daughter to ever have a job, but think that in more than half of worlds that seem possible to me right now, she has a very satisfying life—one that is better than it would be otherwise in part because she never has a job.
I’d note that acoup’s model of fires primacy making defence untenable between hi tech nations, while not completely disproven by the Ukraine war, is a hypothesis that seems much less likely to be true/ less true than it did in early 2022. The Ukraine war has shown in most cases a strong advantage to a prepared defender and the difficulty of taking urban environments.
The current Israel—Hamas was shows a similar tendency, where Israel is moving very slowly into the core urban concentrations (ie it has surrounded Gaza city so far, but not really entered it), though its superiority in resources relative to its opponent is vastly greater than Russia’s advantage over Ukraine was.
I’d expect per capita war deaths to have nothing to do with offence/ defence balance as such (unless the defence gets so strong that wars simply don’t happen, in which case it goes to zero).
Per capita war deaths in this context are about the ability of states to mobilize populations, and about how much damage the warfare does to the civilian population that the battle occurs over. I don’t think there is any uncomplicated connection between that and something like ‘how much bigger does your army need to be for you to be able to successfully win against a defender who has had time to get ready’.
This matches my sense of how a lot of people seem to have… noticed that GPT-4 is fairly well aligned to what the OpenAI team wants it to be, in ways that Yudkowsky et al said would be very hard, and still not view this as at a minimum a positive sign?
Ie problems of the class ‘I told the intelligence to get my mother out of the burning building and it blew her up so the dead body flew out the window, this is because I wasn’t actually specific enough’ just don’t seem like they are a major worry anymore?
Usually when GPT-4 doesn’t understand what I’m asking, I wouldn’t be surprised if a human was confused also.
Yes, but do you think that the violence from Hamas has brought Palestinian independence, or the achievement of other Palestinian goals closer? Yudkowsky’s claim is not that saying nice things about Hamas will be a bad political/social move in the US. The claim is that the use of terrorism is worse than nonviolence at achieving political goals, and the failure of Hamas to achieve its goals seems to be an example of this being true.