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SoerenE
AI Safety reading group
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My wife is also pregnant right now, and I strongly felt that I should include my unborn child in the count.
You might also be interested in this article by Kaj Sotala: http://kajsotala.fi/2016/04/decisive-strategic-advantage-without-a-hard-takeoff/
Even though you are writing about the exact same subject, there is (as far as I can tell) no substantial overlap with the points you highlight. Kaj Sotala titled his blog post “(Part 1)” but never wrote a subsequent part.
I do not know enough about logic to be able to evaluate the argument. But from the Outside View, I am inclined to be skeptical about David Chapman:
DAVID CHAPMAN
“Describing myself as a Buddhist, engineer, scientist, and businessman (...) and as a pop spiritual philosopher“
Web-book in progress: Meaningness
Tagline: Better ways of thinking, feeling, and acting—around problems of meaning and meaninglessness; self and society; ethics, purpose, and value.
EDWIN THOMPSON JAYNES
Professor of Physics at Washington University
Most cited works:
Information theory and statistical mechanics − 10K citations
Probability theory: The logic of science − 5K citations
The tone of David Chapman’s refutation:
E. T. Jaynes (...) was completely confused about the relationship between probability theory and logic. (...) He got confused by the word “Aristotelian”—or more exactly by the word “non-Aristotelian.” (...) Jaynes is just saying “I don’t understand this, so it must all be nonsense.”
Hi,
I’ve read some of “Rationality: From AI to Zombies”, and find myself worrying about unfriendly strong AI.
Reddit recently had an AMA with the OpenAI team, where “thegdb” seems to misunderstand the concerns. Another user, “AnvaMiba” provides 2 links (http://www.popsci.com/bill-gates-fears-ai-ai-researchers-know-better and http://fusion.net/story/54583/the-case-against-killer-robots-from-a-guy-actually-building-ai/) as examples of researchers not worried about unfriendly strong AI.
The arguments presented in the links above are really poor. However, I feel like I am attacking a straw man—quite possibly, www.popsci.com is misrepresenting a more reasonable argument.
Where can I find some precise, well thought out reasons why the risk of human extinction from strong AI is not just small, but for practical purposes equal to 0? I am interested in both arguments from people who believe the risk is zero, and people who do not believe this, but still attempt to “steel man” the argument.
No, a Superintelligence is by definition capable of working out what a human wishes.
However, a Superintelligence designed to e.g. calculate digits of pi would not care about what a human wishes. It simply cares about calculating digits of pi.
In a couple of days, we are hosting a seminar in Århus (Denmark) on AI Risk.
I am tapping out of this thread.
I really like this visualization.
May I suggest another image, where the shopkeeper is in non-obvious danger:
To the left, the Shopkeeper is surrounded by ice-blocks, as in the images. All the way to the right, a monster is shooting arrows at Link, who is shooting arrows back at the monster. (The Gem-container is moved somewhere else.) Link, the Shopkeeper and the monster are on the same horizontal line. It looks like Link is about to heroically take an arrow that the monster aimed for the shopkeeper. The ice is still blocking, so the shopkeeper appears safe.
The problem is that Link can choose to go a bit north, dodging the next arrow from the monster. The monster’s arrow will then destroy the ice. If Link immediately afterwards time fires an arrow at the Shopkeeper, the shopkeeper will be killed, as arrows are faster than movement.
For this to work, I think the monster’s arrow should be aiming at the southern-most part of the ice-block, so Link only has to move a tiny bit. Link can then shoot at the Shopkeeper, and proceed to wirehead himself.
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It is possible to be extremely intelligent, and suffer from a delusion.
I’ve tried my hand at visualizing it:
http://i.imgur.com/VE0P8JY.png
This picture shows the very last instant that the shopkeeper can choose to reset Link.
There are a number of assumptions in my calculations, which might not be valid in the actual game. A key assumption is that arrows fly at 3 times walking speed.
The Shopkeeper will need to walk 1 tile north to reset Link. That requires the same amount of time as for an arrow to fly 3 tiles.At T=0, Link starts moving north, and the arrow heading towards Link continues heading west.
At T=1, Link has moved 1/3rd of a tile north, and thus narrowly avoids the arrow. The arrow continues West. Link takes an openly treacherous turn: He changes to the bow and fires an arrow west, towards the shopkeeper.
At T=2, the arrow from the monster destroys the ice-block protecting the shopkeeper. Link’s arrow continues towards the shopkeeper.
At T=3, Link’s arrow hits the shopkeeper. If the shopkeeper was moving north the entire time, the shopkeeper hits the reset button at this time.
If the shopkeeper decided to go for the reset button at T=0, the reset and the death of the shopkeeper happen simultaneous, and the shopkeeper dies while Link is reset. Notice that a reset (-1000 points) followed by wireheading (+inifinity) is a great move.
If Link moves north, and the shopkeeper immediately follows, Link can just move south again, to block the arrow. The openly treacherous turn at T=1 happens when it is too late for the shopkeeper to do anything about it.
I also like with this visualization that an enemy is present. It is easy to construct a story where a smart AI manipulates the situation until the shopkeeper is in a situation where he can choose between trusting the AI, or death.
Thank you for your comments. I have included them in version 1.1 of the map, where I have swapped FRI and OpenAI/DeepMind, added Crystal Trilogy and corrected the spelling of Vernor Vinge.
Thank you for pointing this out. I did not do my background check far enough back in time. This substantially weakens my case.
I am still inclined to be skeptical, and I have found another red flag. As far as I can tell, E. T. Jaynes is generally very highly regarded, and the only person who is critical of his book is David Chapman. This is just from doing a couple of searches on the Internet.
There are many people studying logic and probability. I would expect some of them would find it worthwhile to comment on this topic if they agreed with David Chapman.
Thank you. That was exactly what I was after.
Thank you for explaining.
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