Regarding the intelligence tests after COVID: Fourth, I can imagine some people that had COVID and go test themselves might actually want/expect to see some effect and end up not doing their best, to be a victim or have an excuse or something to blame for whatever.
siclabomines
I haven’t read the papers so, please correct me if I guess wrong (most likely), anybody.
I’m guessing the UK strain was estimated from relative growth between strains when the UK cases were skyrocketing, and that gave around ~40% higher R0 than COVID-classic.
Now, say they were underestimating the duration of the UK strain. That would mean it is actually more transmissible than estimated—but it was masked by the long timescales (transmissibleness means R, right?). And that would mean that it’s that much harder to contain than we thought (yet it was contained in the UK, which is great and suggests I’m talking BS). And it also means that it comes to dominate COVID-classic that much faster when COVID is going down.> This means that we should expect the English strain to arrive in numbers somewhat slower than its level of infectiousness would otherwise indicate.
I’d instead guess that we should expect it to arrive faster since it’s would be more infectious than previously expected and the US seems to be mitigating much more decently than the UK at that time? Does this make any sense?
I still don’t get it. agc asked how is the retaliation NOT at attempt to stifle criticism. TurnTrout answered that it is not: it’s retaliation for a doxing attack, not for criticism. Then wolflow said something that’s “literally” wrong, and metaphorically I didn’t get it; probably TurnTrout didn’t get it too so he answered the literal interpretation. Etc etc.
But the upvotes-downvotes show I’m not seeing something here.
Simply requiring log-in to read some posts, and limiting the rate of new users (maybe even make it invite only most of the times, like a private torrent tracker), should go a long way to prevent mob attacks.
Why is it that riskier investments should give higher expected returns?
I ask not because I don’t get that the avg person would rather invest on something safe than something unsafe, all else being equal. I get that. I ask because I imagine that investors could bring their total risk down through diversification without harming the expected returns, so big money would prefer the higher expected returns even if they are risky, and in doing that, they’d bring down the extra returns from the riskier investments.
Is it because investments options are so correlated that diversification isn’t enough to bring the risk of a portfolio down to acceptable levels? Or some other reason?
Can immune escape by itself explain the transmission advantage or do we also need it to be spreading better?
Make a captcha with GPT-X rationalist content against real rationalist content. If you can’t tell the difference, you are out :P
Also, train GPT-X on content that triggers mobs, and then use it to keep them busy elsewhere :P
Thus, I must currently hold Sam Altman guilty
*innocent
Israel’s deaths are dropping more slowly than I would have intuitively expected given the vaccinations; I now wonder if it’s because of longer duration of the new strains which means we may have to wait a little longer until most of the previous infections resolve. Anyone that’s been looking at detailed data (like strain prevalence, the ages of the people still dying, etc) has an opinion? (I just looked at the daily death and vaccination rate)
It’s the placebo effect, obviously; you can’t get sick if you zinc it works.
True. Still, using 1960′s prices with current production assumes a 1960 flat demand curve, right? It’s like using off-season avocado prices when no one buys them to compute real GDP during avocado season.
What’s this supposed to be estimating or predicting with Bayes here? The thing you’ll end up doing? Something like this?:
Each of the 3 processes has a general prior about how often they “win” (that add up to 100%, or maybe the basal ganglia normalizes them). And a bayes factor, given the specific “sensory” inputs related to their specific process, while remaining agnostic about the options of the other process. For example, the reinforcer would be thinking: “I get my way 30% of the time. Also, this level of desire to play the game is 2 times more frequent when I end up getting my way than when I don’t (regardless of which of the other 2 won, let’s assume, or I don’t know how to keep this modular). Similarly, the first process would be looking at the level of laziness, and the last one at the strength of the arguments or sth.
Then, the basal ganglia does bayes to update the priors given the 3 pieces of evidence, and gets to a posterior probability distribution among the 3 options.
And finally you’ll end up doing what was estimated because, well, the brain does what minimizes the prediction error. Is this the weird sense in which the info is mixed with bayes and this is all bayesian stuff?
I must be missing something. If this interpretation was correct, e.g., what would increasing the dopamine e.g. in the frontal cortex be doing? Increasing the “unnormalized” prior for such process? (like, it falsely thinks it wins more often than it does, regardless of the evidence). Falsely bias the bayes factor? (like, it thinks it almost never happens that it feels this convinced of what should happen in the cases when it doesn’t end up winning.)
Whatever prevents the most infection, hospitalization and death is the right answer either way
I first read this sentence as suggesting that killing people is the best way to prevent infection.
I doubt that kind of hidden information can affect PredictIt betting odds as it limits the amount each person can bet.
There is bias or Zvi is reaching wrong conclusions with the same info.
I was 80% kidding. I do believe that the type of people that could attack this community are hugely people that can’t tolerate trying to read and understand the kind of content in here; let alone Scott’s 999999 word analytical yet clear essays. They didn’t sign up for real thinking and nuance when they went into activism.
And unlike others, I don’t think mobs are organized. They look like it, but its some sort of emergent behaviour that can be managed by making it boring for the average mob member to attack.
Of course, that was a given. I just assumed that most of us don’t need days of exclusive focus to write an email.
I presume 12 feet is a quarter of the risk of 6 feet [...] there is no magic number
My intuitive oversimplified model of this has been analogous to the direct sound vs reverberant sound in acoustics (in slow motion).
I’d expect the risk from direct viruses to follow the inverse square law (at least to the extent that the risk is linear to the expected number of viruses around you, which can’t be true for high risks). And maybe be even be reduced by cloth masks which stop big droplets (?).
But the reverberant viruses are supposed to be the main drivers of the pandemic, right? And those don’t care about distance for small enough rooms where virosols (heh) have more than enough time to travel everywhere before falling down. This is where N95s and ventilation become crucial, but distancing not so much.
In this model, there is a special distance, a “critical distance” (which depends on the context, masking, etc), after which the direct viruses are as important as the virosols and extra distancing starts not mattering.
Is my intuitive model nonsense?
Why does it follow that a longer time to develop symptoms suggests immune escape?
Also, if the timeline is longer, then the estimates of how much more transmissible Omicron is, based on the time it’s taken for it to displace Delta, should be even greater, right?
If not mandating vaccination for indoor dining, then what?
Even that minimally coercive approach you describe is pretty coercive; I don´t expect the benefits to outweigh the ugly side of making many tens of millions of people be injected with something they don´t like or trust or want. Some people are still getting convinced to get vaccinated just with time alone, and many other things could be done better to convince more people without more restrictions. I don´t know what to expand on without making this too long.
Do you have a good explanation to Moderna’s market price drop?
Borrow less, invest less, or, as you say in your last line, focus on other ways of making money that don’t require innovation and IP?