You either have no idea what “get Covid” means or what “case” means. If you define things clearly it will be obvious that the death rate per infection is under 1% and for 0-49 year olds under 0.1%
20% of NYC had antibodies (per random pop sample). We can expect some small regions will make it out with sub 1% but I think there’s a 90% chance at least 4% of the US will be antibody positive from exposure (with or without severe symptoms) after a year (and a 90% chance no more than 60% will). We’ll apparently know more when the sedars-sinai antibody test is in wide use.
We do know viral loads matter.
I did support lockdown (incl stronger measures than what the US employed) early on hoping for improved treatment. It’s barely improved. Nothing great is coming.
No, you’re not missing anything. This should be obviously true to anyone who’s observing. Hints of vaccine or treatment-magic-bullet just around the corner, anecdotal scary nonfatal effects, false hope of keeping sub-1% US-wide infected, etc have simply been upvoted in media for political reasons (esp. sunk cost fallacy, but it’s complicated—no lockdown leader wants to be blamed for even one death caused by their decision to relax even partially). People have taken sides for/against lockdown and are digging in (there’s also phony stuff on the open-up side—overexuberance for mostly-false-positive antibody results suggesting widespread infection so lower severity per infection).
I now believe we’re hearing “even though the mortality per infection is well under 1% here are the terrible things besides dying that might happen to you” more because maximum scaremongering earns clicks and leads to improved compliance w/ sanitation/isolation measures we want. Personally I think the evidence that this is more or less hard to recover from if it doesn’t kill you than any other viral illness just isn’t there (though there are many identified differences in mechanism). For example, should we expect people with antibodies who never noticed symptoms to be impaired for 6 months? Not noticably.
Isn’t that exactly what we are doing in our lockdown world? We are socially distancing and self-isolating, so mild cases always die out.
I don’t follow your “so …”
People who have avoided contact since Feb are incredibly more likely to be delaying (perhaps forever) their date of infection. Basically none of them have yet had a mild case.
It’s an open question whether the strain we who’ve avoided it so far eventually are exposed to is more or less severe in symptoms (obviously it will tend to be more contagious) than the one people got in earlier waves. I always expected it would be (because fast onset fatal strains are quarantined more effectively and cannot spread) slower-onset, more lingering, but less severe. I don’t have much reason to change my mind, even though you’ve brought an interesting historical claim into view.
Besides hospital workers, hardly anyone is going to hospitals unless they have covid already, and although it’s not perfect, hygiene is practiced. I agree that hospital workers are more likely to contract a severe strain; that’s why they should arguably should have been variolated by intentional light exposure already.
Apparently the virus had naturally selected in the trenches to become much more deadly. People mildly ill remained in the trenches, and so the virus could not spread. But those becoming gravely ill were taken to military hospitals, were the virus could spread.
Where is the evidence for the increased spreading through military hospitals? It’s a nice story, and plausible.
Why wouldn’t it have spread at as well in the trenches where you have repeated exposure to the same group of people? Open air/sunlight, perhaps? Or are you emphasizing the travel aspect (coming into contact with more people total than the mild cases)?
For sure people having a hard time breathing already will skimp on optional exit valve filtering, but you can sell it as helping-others to comply, and people will at least brag about how they’re doing it.
“The idea is to not get infected in the first place” is not good thinking.
Given the long asymptomatic infectious period, both the “protect myself” and “protect others” effectiveness matter in a proposal for universal public wearing, although of course compliance is more incentivized by “protect myself”.
That said, I don’t question that these are good overall.
You can be pretty sure that whatever forecast is touted by authorities is one designed to increase support+compliance with whatever measures they decided to take this time. Just like the previous was badly overestimating severity with social distancing (and probably without too), I’m willing to believe this one is optimistic about a gradual reopening of physical commerce in select areas.
[I know you didn’t advocate this, just saying:] If we had the option to wait and obtain rigorous proof, we would prefer that. We don’t have that option. Concurrent with obtaining more certain information, it should be used (and is being used) off-label at safe doses in combination with azithromycin to ward off secondary infections.
Your ‘Zvi’ doesn’t make sense: if we know it works, everyone should get a low dose ASAP. But we don’t know it works. I favor Hanson’s approach to discover how well it works, and then reevaluate.
Are you aware that Chinese nationals worldwide are often asked to collect intel or perform ops for CCP? Do you think the disproportionate stories of industrial espionage are just disproportionate reporting? Are you aware that CCP requires its citizen companies to routinely violate users’ privacy?
Why does it make you angry that xenophobic tendencies contribute to skepticism of reliance on Chinese software/servers? How is that at all relevant to a rational assessment?
That Iceland’s currently 1% infected as of now doesn’t say anything about how infected it would be after a few weeks of no-special-controls measures (comparable to folks’ behavior in a regular flu season). This is the beginning of this virus’s worldwide course. It’s dishonest to compare a snapshot now with the accumulated total of a whole flu sason.
If it’s very contagious (it is), the damage could easily become 50x current. It’s true that as and if we learn outcomes per infection are not as bad as feared, we will relax. While we should be skeptical of hype, we need to act aggressively early on until we know more about how to treat and how important it is to slow or limit the spread.
How many times more contagious (if uncontrolled) and critical/fatal (without hospital overcrowding) is it than a typical flu?
Diamond Princess indicates at *least* 2x on both counts IMO. I think it’s a bit shady to say that 2x is ′ well within the range of uncertainty ′ as if that means something.
I hope it’s only 2x worse; I believe 5x on contagion and 3x on severity pre-overcrowding.
When can we be assured a pandemic isn’t looming?
Vaccines sometimes kill people. Several serious diseases that killed many more people, we’re told, are a much smaller risk now. At some point, you’d think people would want to selfishly avoid vaccinating so much. And that’s what we see happening. There’s a lot of rationalization going on.
Author advocates biphasic sleep totaling 6.3hr/day.
Author claims http://jcsm.aasm.org/ViewAbstract.aspx?pid=31409 doesn’t support ‘smaller testes size for men who sleep less’. It does.
Still, I appreciate that he helped me repair some erroneous beliefs I picked up from Walker’s book.