Even more important, I think, is the realization that, to decide how much you’re willing to bet on a specific outcome, all of the following are essentially the same:
you do have the information to calculate it but haven’t calculated it yet
you don’t have the information to calculate it but know how to obtain such information.
you don’t have the information to calculate it
The bottom line is that you don’t know what the next value will be, and that’s the only thing that matters.
This has been the most fun, satisfying survey I’ve ever been part of :) Thanks for posting this. Can’t wait to see the results!
One question I’d find interesting is closely related to the probability of life in the universe. Namely, what are the chances that a randomly sampled spacefaring lifeform would have an intelligence similar enough to ours for us to be able to communicate meaningfully, both in its “ways” and in general level of smarts, if we were to meet.
Given that I enjoyed taking part in this, may I suggest that more frequent and in-depth surveys on specialized topics might be worth doing?