Is the date boundary here midnight Eastern time?
rocurley
Karma: 736
I think this comment would be a lot better without the attempts to psychoanalyze OP.
Planecrash has 307 images at the time I made this comment, for context.
If you don’t want to bother using the glowfic downloader yourself, here’s the epub so far. My intention is to update it every day, but no guarantees.
I’m also very interested in this. Here are some numbers I’ve been using:
Ratio of confirmed to unconfirmed cases (USA):
34 (50%), or 5 (5%) to 94 (95%)
This is based on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642 , which estimated the true number of coronavirus cases in Seattle (as of 2020-03-01). I divided that by the number of confirmed cases in Seattle at that time.
Doubling time (USA):
4 ish (which I’m treating as 2 (5%) to 7 (95%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/WHO_situation_reports is how I’m getting 4ish. There are papers that estimate higher: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 gives 7, for example, but that appears to be in Wuhan post-containment.
Here’s my bay area hospital capacity model: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/15278
Here’s a guesstimate model I made to try and figure out when hospitals will become overwhelmed. Lots of model uncertainty here that I’d appreciate advice on, but the current prediction is that there will be a hospital bed for you if you get infected in the bay area within the next 6 days (95% confidence within the model: actual confidence is much lower).
Submit suggestions here
That’s correct: anybody can give a talk, and unprepared talks are explicitly welcome.
Japanese kids going on their first errand, as discussed at the meetup: search for Hajimeteno Otsukai
Oh no, sorry!
I can help! Go to this url:
And hit the send button. I’m just a normal user so I can’t delete your post, but this is the api command to do that.
Please note that this moved!
Just my particular results.
For those of you still waiting, got an email to the effect of: We did it, sorry it took so long, it’ll be uploaded in 3 weeks. Also they said that more than half were not yet done.
Every 3rd meetup is board games: there’s generally dominion, Zendo fairly common, and often one “long” game going on sort of on the side.
I think I’m probably missing some common games that I don’t pick as much...
Not sure I’ve got a good source for you, but if you use the Rayleigh criterion you get that you can just about make out earth-sized objects using visible light at 4 ly. You could use much higher energy photons (better resolution from lower wavelength), but this gives you other problems. Anything beyond visible light won’t make it through the atmosphere (1 km is a BIG thing to put into space), and x and gamma rays are really hard to build optics for.
Scott just responded here, with a number of points relevant to the topic of rationalist communities.
I would assume there was supposed to be a link there?
Donated the max. Thanks for posting this.