My curiosity is drawn to the nature of the benefits the woman expects. Does she get a high from the false belief or does her mental model inform her that the false belief will favorably affect external reality—e.g., she will have friends more likely to behave charitably towards her than atheist friends will be?
A very intelligent conservative Christian once gave me the latter as a primary reason she become a Christian. OTOH, Garcia thought that the former was usually the motive in the population he interacted (which was very different from the population at large though).
The most important and useful thing I learned from your OB posts, Eliezer, is probably the mind-projection fallacy: the knowledge that the adjective “probable” and the adverb “probably” always makes an implicit reference to an agent (usually the speaker).
Honorable mention: the fact that there is no learning without (inductive) bias.