ChrisHibbert

Karma: 476

ChrisHibbert 7 Jul 2026 6:05 UTC
1 point
0
on: Computation enables Action: Exploding the Simulation Fallacy
I added a reference to Laukkonen’s “A beautiful loop” in the text. Sorry that was missing when I first published this.

Computation enables Action: Exploding the Simulation Fallacy

ChrisHibbert6 Jul 2026 2:54 UTC

27 points

1 comment6 min readLW link

ChrisHibbert 5 Jul 2026 23:39 UTC
3 points
0
in reply to: Arjun Panickssery’s comment on: Strong, bipartisan leadership for resistance to Trump.
Sorry this is so late.
They need a judicial warrant to enter private residences or to stop people in the street. The law and the courts have been clear that stopping people randomly on the street requires probable cause.
ICE doesn’t need a warrant to arrest an identified person for whom they already have evidence that they’re here illegally. Without that, we would be allowing agents to arbitrarily stop anyone the agent feels like stopping. And since they don’t honor birth certificates, Real ID, or any other paperwork a reasonable person might have, this allows them to detain anyone they feel like, and they’ve demonstrated that they hold people incommunicado, which is a travesty of the justice the US is supposed to stand for..

ChrisHibbert 25 Apr 2026 13:06 UTC
6 points
3
on: Why no new notations since 1960?
Judea Pearl’s Causal Models are new and very influential in all modern reasoning about causal inference: figuring out which actions might be the causes of which others. Reducing discussions of causality to a graphical notation was an enormous breakthrough.

ChrisHibbert 13 Jan 2026 4:47 UTC
17 points
10
in reply to: lilkim2025’s comment on: Strong, bipartisan leadership for resistance to Trump.
Your points are mostly fair that this kind of behavior has precedents. But I’m a libertarian so saying the other team is doing the same thing doesn’t convince me much that it’s not bad. From my viewpoint, the current administration has more of a plan of ignoring rules, laws, the constitution, etc. than most previous. Each incident has antecedents, and I can see how people on the red team might think “we’re just doing to them what they’ve been doing to us”, but what I see is a more concerted effort to undermine the rule of law.
The behavior of ICE (masks, lack of visible ID, ignoring warrant requirements, ignoring judicial orders) seems beyond the pale, even if the rules (deportation) they’re enforcing are on the books. The way they use self-declared emergencies are more extreme than previous administrations, but you’re right, “everyone does it”.
Your example about RR joking about nuking Russia seems clearly different than Trump’s repeated threats. An off-the-cuff remark doesn’t carry the same weight as Trump’s persistent prodding on this subject.
I’m not sure whether jawboning done behind the scenes is worse than taking partial control and ownership of private companies in the broad light of day. I’m a libertarian, so both free speech and private property are pretty important values to me. They weren’t proud enough of the Jawboning to do it in public, and I think they backed off when it became public. Continuing to insist that individuals and companies accede to his demands for tribute seems different.
But thanks for giving the other point of view. I can see that others see it differently.
I was responding to the question “What is that something and why does it make you so worried?” I would have been able to give a shorter list for any recent administration.

ChrisHibbert 12 Jan 2026 17:20 UTC
42 points
32
in reply to: No77e’s comment on: Strong, bipartisan leadership for resistance to Trump.
- encouraging ICE to train its agents to round people up without proper warrants, and with disregard for their fundamental rights. Masked and out-of-uniform law enforcement is an affront to a free society.
- attacking foreign countries without consulting congress
- threatening Greenland without consulting congress
- threatening private companies so they give “golden shares” to the government, or agree to share profits with it
- Shutting down the immigration system unilaterally. e.g. adding $100k “fees” for visa classes without congressional direction
- Suing newspapers and media outlets for disadvantageous coverage.
This is just a start.

ChrisHibbert 22 Nov 2024 16:45 UTC
11 points
4
in reply to: Jacob Pfau’s comment on: Which things were you surprised to learn are not metaphors?
Weight lifters feeling “pumped” is similarly literal. I get this from rock climbing more often than lifting, but after a particularly strenuous climb, your arm muscles feel inflated—they’re engorged with blood. It can take a minute for it to subside.

ChrisHibbert 18 Aug 2024 16:03 UTC
1 point
1
in reply to: jbash’s comment on: Decision Theory in Space
Vader is clearly homicidal and irrational. Leia’s superior rationality won’t slow him down. Leia recognizes that immediately, but she should also have realized that revealing the base’s location wouldn’t prevent him from destroying the planet.

ChrisHibbert 4 Aug 2024 17:14 UTC
1 point
0
on: We’re not as 3-Dimensional as We Think
https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-happens-in-a-mind-that-cant-see-mental-images-20240801/

ChrisHibbert 4 Aug 2024 16:40 UTC
18 points
6
on: We’re not as 3-Dimensional as We Think
I think there’s a lot of research that shows we’re fairly bad at predicting how other people see the world, and how much detail there is in their heads. I’ve read quite a few books that talk about how some people presume that other people are speaking metaphorically when they talk about imagining scenes in color or in 3-d, or how they can “hear” a musical piece in their mind. Those who can assume that others just aren’t trying. Face-blindness wasn’t recognized for quite a while.

Some people are much better at doing mental rotations of 3-d objects than others. I can do a decent mental image of the inside of an orange, an apple, a persimmon, or a pear, but perhaps I’ve spent more time cutting up fruit than others. My mental image of the internal shape of the branches in our persimmon tree is pretty detailed, since I’ve been climbing inside to pick fruit and trim for 35 years.
google.com/images?q=mental+rotation+three-dimensional+objects
There was a time when I was working on n-dimensional data structures that I could cleanly think in 4 or 5 dimensional “images”. They weren’t quite visual, since vision is so 2-d, but I could independently manipulate features of the various dimensions separately.
When looking at full-color stereograms, you have to have a mental model of the image depth to make sense of it, even if the rendering is all of surfaces.

ChrisHibbert 25 Apr 2024 3:22 UTC
6 points
0
in reply to: Mateusz Bagiński’s comment on: Examples of Highly Counterfactual Discoveries?
The Iowa Election Markets were roughly contemporaneous with Hanson’s work. They are often co-credited.

ChrisHibbert 23 Apr 2024 15:21 UTC
3 points
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on: Funny Anecdote of Eliezer From His Sister
Proofreading comment:
Please change “folks” to “focus”

ChrisHibbert 30 Jul 2023 16:20 UTC
1 point
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on: How to make real-money prediction markets on arbitrary topics
I don’t see a place for listing book orders, so does this use an automated Market Maker? What’s the algorithm? (e.g. Hanson’s LMSR?) Where can we find the code?

ChrisHibbert 25 Jun 2023 17:04 UTC
4 points
2
on: Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread to humans? Why not?
Cooking tainted meat doesn’t denature prions. (They aren’t “alive”, so they can’t be “killed”.) Neither do most biological processes, as you might expect in the normal case of digestion. As the article above mentions, they can persist in the environment for years.
It can take temperatures of several hundred degrees to denature them.

ChrisHibbert 25 Jun 2023 16:46 UTC
0 points
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on: Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread to humans? Why not?
Prion diseases are slow to develop (up to decades), incurable, and always fatal.
I think the “always fatal” part of this sentence is vacuous. Unless the meaning is something akin to “kills within X years of contracting the disease”, it can only mean “kills the victim if they don’t die of something else first.” (In fact, the article later says “Humans infected with BSE, meanwhile, can harbor it for up to decades post-exposure, and live an average of over a year after showing symptoms.”)
There are two known infectious prion diseases in people. … Kuru … vCJD
Wikipedia lists fatal familial insomnia, and two others.
But it doesn’t seem to infect people. Is it ever going to? If a newly-emerged virus were sweeping across the US and killing deer, which could be spread through consuming infected meat, I would think “oh NO.” I’d need to see very good evidence to stop sounding the alarm.
Scrapie, in sheep, has been known since at least 1732, and isn’t thought to spread to humans.

ChrisHibbert 10 Sep 2022 16:10 UTC
3 points
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on: Put Dirty Dishes in the Dishwasher
I think a thing that most people neglect is that dishwashers are designed for approximately a family of four preparing and eating two meals a day together, which leads to a certain accumulation of dishes, and the dishwasher needing to be run at least every other day. That means a certain amount of time for the detritus to dry on the dishes. If you have a smaller dishwasher, or more people eating, the dishwasher will be run more often, and it’ll be more effective at cleaning dirtier dishes. If you run the dishwasher daily, #4 or #5 might work well for you. If there are only two eating, or you’re eating more take-out (fewer pots and pans) and you only do a load every 4 or 5 days, then the dishes need to be cleaner going into the dishwasher.

ChrisHibbert 7 Jul 2022 15:19 UTC
4 points
−13
on: Carrying the Torch: A Response to Anna Salamon by the Guild of the Rose
Silly hats are commonly associated with some cults and secret societies, so that’s not particularly a mark in your favor. “not taking yourselves too seriously” is a plus, but neither dress code nor anti-dress code will get you there.

ChrisHibbert 27 Jun 2022 15:15 UTC
1 point
1
on: Air Conditioner Repair
It’s helpful to the community to file a report with the BBB. And next time check the references there rather than trusting the super’s recommendations.

ChrisHibbert 25 Mar 2022 15:33 UTC
4 points
0
on: Consciousness Mini-Survey Results
With only two questions about what people believe, I expected to see a matrix showing number of people in each 2-d category. The most interesting result is how do answers to the two questions correlate.

ChrisHibbert 10 Feb 2022 4:49 UTC
10 points
0
on: How to Legally Conduct “Rationalist Bets” in California?
The laws in the US (generally local or state) are almost always written to criminalize transactions that involve “chance, consideration, and interest”.
“Chance” basically means that the outcome is outside the control of the participants. In Texas, poker is defined as a game of skill, so the outcome is, by definition, not a matter of chance. Most other places don’t take that stance.
“Consideration” means that the parties put up something of value. Another way around these laws is often taken by prediction markets (or casino nights) within a company. The participants might win something, but the initial stake is provided by the sponsor.
“Interest” means that the parties stand to gain something if the outcome is in their favor. If the winnings will go to charity, you aren’t breaking any laws. This is the work-around exploited by Long Bets.
It seems to me that one could make a solid case that prediction markets demonstrate skill, since there is consistency over time of who wins and who loses. A variety of PMs have demonstrated that there are super-predictors who have a consistent ability to do well. The issue is that the laws are written and enforced locally, so there’s no one to go to to get a blanket ruling that you won’t be prosecuted. If you offer PM services throughout the US, then every local prosecutor who thinks the publicity will help her in the next election can take you to court, and you have to win all the cases in order to not lose your shirt.

ChrisHibbert

Com­pu­ta­tion en­ables Ac­tion: Ex­plod­ing the Si­mu­la­tion Fallacy

Computation enables Action: Exploding the Simulation Fallacy