This is the most lesswrongian thing I’ve seen in a long time. And boy, count me in.
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The key thing you don’t address is how unelected bodies like the military and the judiciary may pushback against fascists. On January 6th the legislative branch was able to address the issue alone (a kind of blow into your thesis). Anyway, I wouldn’t expect Roberts to show up on January 20th to sworn in Trump. And I see at least 5 Justices willing to protect America. The judiciary branch actually is working hard to incarcerate Trump.
Also, you don’t address important G7 countries like Japan and the United Kingdom. Because during the far right uprising the Conservative Party kept power, the far right never had a chance there. Japan is a one party system, unlikely to fall.
I would go this way for a second post: -How’d this work in each of the G7 countries? -How’d this works smaller richer countries like Israel, Italy, and Mexico? I understand that Erdogan is an autocrat, but how can Nethanyahu, Meloni, and Obrador become autocrats themselves? -How international institutions would react? For example, during Brazil’s transition of power, the U.S. had the navy near our shores to remember the military not do anything silly and the U.S. Senate approved in consensus a motion congratulating Lula. Also, many rich countries live under the rule of Brussels.
I think that as the Trump years have shown, the international system can endure some years without Washington. I’d be worried were D.C., Paris and London to fall at the same time.
For all things invention, intellectual property rights are an important thing to take into consideration. The fact you could create things and patent then and then profit, meant that many people started to be creative. And I guess it can be argued that it impacted the Zeitgeist so much that even in a neighbor state that was still facing an absolutist regime, the impact was felt, even with less property rights.
I don’t think you could invent the air balloon, enter the Senate and wait for a patent nor any kind of glory. If my peers are joining the Roman Army, I’d rather joining too than pursuing a career in engineering.
If the universe were once finitely large, what kind of experience would it anticipate?
I don’t know how much it’d be a new thing, but Kardec’s spiritism is very familiar to the Orthodox Judaism.
I grew up on Brazil spiritism and it’s a sophisticated way to address science through a third revealing. And many answers of the Spirit of Truth on the The Spirit’s Book are scientifically accurate, but just with the epoch science (it’s harder to argue that XIX Century French people couldn’t understand that spirits live on the vacuum or another dimension, but the Spirit of Truth goes ahead and tells Kardec that in fact “There is an ethereal fluid that fills space and penetrates bodies. This fluid is the ether or primitive cosmic matter, the generator of the universe and beings.”). Nonetheless, there are holes but they are harder to spot. So if you’re smart to ask the dumb question to the average religion but you don’t put much effort thinking in the harder questions, this may well suit you (I don’t think it’ll suit anyone on this forum)
If you believe that the placebo works, it works. You’re right in believing it works.
If you don’t believe that the placebo works, it doesn’t work. You’re right believing it doesn’t work
If you believe that the sky is blue, you’re right.
If you believe that the sky is green, it’s still blue, you’re wrong.
Truths that have humans involve some amounts of reflexivity.
I’m not a decel, but the way this stuff often is resolved is that there are crazy people that aren’t taken seriously by the managerial class but that are very loud and make obnoxious asks. Think the evangelicals against abortion or the Columbia protestors.
Then there is some elite, part of the managerial class, that makes reasonable policy claims. For Abortion, this is Mitch McConnel, being disciplined over a long period of time in choosing the correct judges. For Palestine, this is Blinken and his State Department bureaucracy.
The problem with decels is that theoretically they are part of the managerial class themselves. Or at least, they act like they are. They call themselves rationalists, read Eliezer and Scott Alexander, and what not. But the problem is that it’s very hard for an uninterested third party to take seriously these Overton Window bogous claims from people that were supposed to be measured, part of the managerial class.
You need to split. There are the crazy ones that people don’t take seriously, but will move the managerial class. And there are the serious people that EA Money will send to D.C. to work at Blumenthal’s office. This person needs to make small policy requests that will sabotage IA, without looking so. And slowly, you get policy wins and you can sabotage the whole effort.