Many many things in the world are explained by society having an unconscious visceral forecast of AGI timelines in the late 2020s. Many actors behaviors make more sense if you assume they have late 2020s timelines.
Why the end of neoliberalism and the post-war world? Late 2020s timelines. They understand having raw power will be relatively more important than having non-zero-sum relationship with your allies and trading partners.
Why the 2nd Cold War? Late 2020s timelines. U.S. and China know that being ahead during the late 2020s probably means being ahead forever.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Late 2020s timelines. Russia knows they couldn’t do it later.
Why Gen Z isn’t obsessed with work but they are obsessed with health and positional goods? Late 2020s timelines. They want to be healthy to await the arrival of the cure of aging and know they won’t have a long career.
Why politics has become more raw, polarized, with each side thinking losing is the end of the world? They want their side in power during the 2020s.
Why long-term interest rates bottomed the same month GPT-3 launched? Late 2020s timelines (ok, this is a joke)
Why the arrival of crypto and gambling culture and ticket prize (e.g.: creator and only fans and hustlers). Late 2020s timelines.
Why are governments running big fiscal deficts with no end in sight? Late 2020s timelines.
This is a bit “wtf happened in 1971?” I mean, the Intel 4004 was launched in 1971, the release of the first microprocessor. And I think what explains this is that this is all part of the same trend of Moore’s Law pushing for automation, just that we are getting to the part of the exponential where the numbers get insane.
I disagree with your post, but I will add an additional example: falling birthrates. I don’t remember in which of his essays it was (probably in Fanged Noumena), but Nick Land posits that the technocapital system of capitalism which he views as being AGI has figured out that it won’t need humans much longer and thus has no incentive to keep the birth rates up. I obviously do not literally believe this, but I think it helps illustrate what you’re trying to describe.
Many many things in the world are explained by society having an unconscious visceral forecast of AGI timelines in the late 2020s. Many actors behaviors make more sense if you assume they have late 2020s timelines.
Why the end of neoliberalism and the post-war world? Late 2020s timelines. They understand having raw power will be relatively more important than having non-zero-sum relationship with your allies and trading partners.
Why the 2nd Cold War? Late 2020s timelines. U.S. and China know that being ahead during the late 2020s probably means being ahead forever.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Late 2020s timelines. Russia knows they couldn’t do it later.
Why Gen Z isn’t obsessed with work but they are obsessed with health and positional goods? Late 2020s timelines. They want to be healthy to await the arrival of the cure of aging and know they won’t have a long career.
Why politics has become more raw, polarized, with each side thinking losing is the end of the world? They want their side in power during the 2020s.
Why long-term interest rates bottomed the same month GPT-3 launched? Late 2020s timelines (ok, this is a joke)
Why the arrival of crypto and gambling culture and ticket prize (e.g.: creator and only fans and hustlers). Late 2020s timelines.
Why are governments running big fiscal deficts with no end in sight? Late 2020s timelines.
This is a bit “wtf happened in 1971?” I mean, the Intel 4004 was launched in 1971, the release of the first microprocessor. And I think what explains this is that this is all part of the same trend of Moore’s Law pushing for automation, just that we are getting to the part of the exponential where the numbers get insane.
I disagree with your post, but I will add an additional example: falling birthrates. I don’t remember in which of his essays it was (probably in Fanged Noumena), but Nick Land posits that the technocapital system of capitalism which he views as being AGI has figured out that it won’t need humans much longer and thus has no incentive to keep the birth rates up. I obviously do not literally believe this, but I think it helps illustrate what you’re trying to describe.