I have less confidence than most here in how much automated AI researchers will accelerate the takeoff. The difficulty of improving time horizons seem like a big data & compute problem. And it is also not clear how much you’ll be able to iterate in other vectors.
But! I am relatively more confident that for a given level of intelligence, automated AI researchers will be brutal in optimizing the cost to run it. We should expect an acceleration of the price of intelligence. See NanoGPT and PostTrainBench.
This could also be a way the bubble pops. At some point, running more expensive models stop making economic sense for a given task.
Imagine if by Summer 2028 we can run a Claude Opus 6-level model in your own Mac. Will Claude Opus 7 be that much better if you’re not doing advanced research? What about Summer 2029?
No wonder we are hearing about the possibility of a 2026 Anthropic IPO.
I have less confidence than most here in how much automated AI researchers will accelerate the takeoff. The difficulty of improving time horizons seem like a big data & compute problem. And it is also not clear how much you’ll be able to iterate in other vectors.
But! I am relatively more confident that for a given level of intelligence, automated AI researchers will be brutal in optimizing the cost to run it. We should expect an acceleration of the price of intelligence. See NanoGPT and PostTrainBench.
This could also be a way the bubble pops. At some point, running more expensive models stop making economic sense for a given task.
Imagine if by Summer 2028 we can run a Claude Opus 6-level model in your own Mac. Will Claude Opus 7 be that much better if you’re not doing advanced research? What about Summer 2029?
No wonder we are hearing about the possibility of a 2026 Anthropic IPO.