Computability is not important. I only meant to cut off possibilities like “ROB hands TABI 1 and ‘the number which is 0 if the goldbach conjecture is true and 2 otherwise’”
You can restrict yourself to arbitrary integers, and perhaps I should have
Computability is not important. I only meant to cut off possibilities like “ROB hands TABI 1 and ‘the number which is 0 if the goldbach conjecture is true and 2 otherwise’”
You can restrict yourself to arbitrary integers, and perhaps I should have
By “better than 50% accuracy” I am trying to convey “Provide an algorithm such that if you ran a casino where the players acted as ROB, the casino can price the game at even money and come out on top, given the law of large numbers”.
(Perhaps?) more precisely I mean that for any given instantiation of ROB’s strategy, then for any given target reward R and payoff probability P<1 there exists a number N such that if you ran N trials betting even money with ROB you would have P probability to have at least R payoff (assuming you start with 1 dollar or whatever).
You can assume ROB will know your algorithm when choosing his distribution of choices.
Good questions! It’s a forum with posts between two users “Iarwain” (Yudkowsky) and “lintamande”, who is co-authoring this piece. There are no extraneous posts, although there are (very rarely) OOC posts, for instance announcing the discord or linking to a thread for a side story.
In each post, either user will post as either a character (ie Keltham, Carissa, and others—each user writes multiple characters) or without a character (for 3rd person exposition). I usually use the avatars when possible to quickly identify who is speaking.
You don’t need to pay attention to history or post time, until your catch up to the current spot and start playing the F5 game (they are writing at a very quick pace).
Could you explain why it’s clearly impossible to produce an algorithm that gives better than 50% chance of success on the first round? I think I follow the rest of your argument.
Could you explain why you are almost certain?
Please spoiler your edit
Thanks!
I do not believe that “any monotonically increasing bounded function over the reals is continuous”. For instance, choose some montonically increasing function bounded to (0,0.4) for x<-1, another function bounded to (0.45,0.55) for −1<x<1, and a third function bounded to (0.6,1) for x>1.
I did not check the rest of the argument, sorry
Neither
If I am following, it seems like an agent which says “bet ‘higher’ if positive and ‘lower’ otherwise” does well
Actually, for any given P which works, P’(x)=P(x)/10 is also a valid algorithm.
There is a “going going” in this chapter as well
No, since if I had rolled low I wouldn’t want to like, give them significantly more notice than necessary as I job hunted. I offered to do something like hash a seed to use on a RNG, they didn’t think that was necessary.
I think top level posts generate much more than 10x the value than the entire comments section combined, based off my impression that the majority of lurkers don’t get deep in the comments. I wonder if top level posts having a x^1.5 exponent would get closer to the ideal… That would also disincentivize post series...
I think finding the correct link required a good heart. In the hope Zvi will see you, I am commenting to further boost visibility.
I really appreciate this post. In Chinese, the vocal pronouns for “he” and “she” are the same (they are distinguished in writing). It is common for Chinese ESL students to mix the words “she” and “he” when speaking. I have been trying to understand this, and relate it to my (embarrassingly recent) understanding that probabilistic forecasts (which I now use ubiquitously) are a different “epistemology” than I used to have. This post is a very concrete exploration of the subject. Thank you!
My understanding is that the math textbooks were banned in Florida for their use of the “Common Core” framework. I was a math educator, and my experience is that resistance to Common Core comes primarily from parents who hate math, and are confused why they can’t do their child’s math, and who somehow take this as a failure mode.
This article was great! Please define WIC much earlier, that was how I felt reading it and the first feedback I got after sharing it. Thanks for writing this!
This was the UX I was going to mention—watching GSL (SC:BW) VoDs. There it is tricky, especially since individual games can vary so heavily.
I would like to note that the naive version of this is bad. First, the naive version falls prey to new grads (who generally have nothing) declaring bankruptcy immediately after graduation. Then, lenders are forced to ask for collateral, which gets rid of a GREAT quality our current system has—you can go to college even if your parents weren’t frugal, no matter their income. I think this criticism probably still lands with a 5 year time horizon, maybe less for a 10 year.
I like the concept that lenders would take an interest in which major you were getting, since that seems like something that could use an actuarial table. I think we would benefit from more directly incentivizing STEM (and other profitable) degrees, which IDR doesn’t seem to do. What if IDR left lenders holding the bag?
I don’t see how 2 is true.
If you always answer that your number is lower, you definitely have exactly 50% accuracy, right? So ROB isn’t constraining you to less than 50% accuracy.