So is this an accurate summary of your thinking?
You agree with FDT on some issues. The goal of decision theory is to determine what kind of agent you should be. The kind of agent you are (your “source code”) affects other agents’ decisions
FDT requires you to construct counterfactual worlds. For example, if I’m faced with Newcomb’s problem, I have to imagine a counterfactual world in which I’m a two-boxer
We don’t know how to construct counterfactual worlds. Imagining a consistent world in which I’m a two-boxer is just as hard as imagining a one where objects fall up, or 2+2 is 5
You get around this by constructing counterfactual models, instead of counterfactual worlds. Instead of trying to imagine a consistent world that caused me to become a two-boxer, I just make a simple mental model. For example, my model might indicate that my “source code” causes both the predictor’s decision and mine. From here, I can model myself as a two-boxer, even though that model doesn’t represent any possible world
Really enjoyed this. I’m skeptical, because (1) a huge number of things have to go right, and (2) some of them depend on the goodwill of people who are disincentivized to help
Most likely: the Vacated Territory flounders, much like Birobidzhan (Which is a really fun story, by the way. In the 1930’s, the Soviet Union created a mostly-autonomous colony for its Jews in Siberia. Macha Gessen tells the story here)
Best case:
In September 2021, the first 10,000 Siuslaw Syrians touched down in Siuslaw National Forest, land that was previously part of Oregon.
It was an auspicious start. The US and state governments had happily passed all necessary laws, amendments, and regulations. Likewise, the locals were friendly. Those already living on the Suislaw River happily gave up their homes in exchange for government compensation.
Their new President, Abdul Ali, dreamt of a shining city-state, which would attracted the best of the Syrian diaspora. The US government and various NGOs offered all sorts of goods and hands-on assistance, but Ali declined everything except cash. Ali received $20,000 per person for the first year, giving him an initial budget of $200M. Donations per person decreased by about 10% per year.
The land wasn’t great for farming, but the fishing was excellent. Ali’s new Exclusive Economic Zone had previously been a marine mammal sanctuary. The Siuslaw Syrians bought used commercial fishing boats (and, in the early days, hired some of their crew). Ali managed the fishery with an iron fist, and the fish population remained high for many years.
In the first year, Ali invested a full 25% of his budget in an Islamic University. He believed the key to success would be attracting the best and brightest of the diaspora – especially those of working age. Ali marketed his vision widely, and it worked. His population grew like wildfire.
One day, someone was caught smuggling Fentanyl into the United States through Siuslaw. Ali saw how this could harm relations with the US, so he caused the drug traffickers to be publicly beaten and put to death. Siuslaw continued this harsh regime, and the US never saw Siuslaw as a security threat.
Ali had hoped to thrive as a city-state, but he just didn’t have the advantages of Singapore – a massive port at the crossroads of the world’s shipping. He’s also not receiving as much external cash that Israel received at a similar point in its development. So he makes two moves:
First, to keep his population growth high, Ali invested in making Siuslaw the “authentic Syrian culture.” Most of the diaspora believes they would feel more at home in Siuslaw than in Syria. It was a geniunely good place to live, striking the balance between devout and modern. Siuslaw reached 1M people by 2030.
Second, he built semiconductors. Initially, poor quality ones. But Siuslaw’s skilled manufacturing sector eventually developed.
In the early days, Ali tried to accept a Chinese team’s investment and on-the-ground assistance with a semiconductor plant. The US threatened to cut off all aid and close its border with Siuslaw. Ali backed down. Later, he met similar pressure when trying to purchase military equipment from Russia for his police force. Ali learned that the US would have a quiet veto power on his foreign policy. Outside of foreign policy, Ali jealously – and successfully – guarded his independence.
By 2040, Siuslaw has reached a population of 2 million and matches the United States’ GDP per capita.
The Syrian refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey have now been operating for 28 years, and their population has actually increased. Ali makes generous public gestures, but only those who are young, healthy, productive, or smart are allowed to immigrate. Siuslaw has no plans to solve the refugee problem. Nevertheless, everyone agrees: the Vacated Territories Project was a success.