15 year old trying not to get turned into a paperclip.
Studying alignment and researching hedging in LLMs v prompt imperativity.
fluxxrider
Karma: 87
No luck! I think it’s the </thinking> tags as well
I was talking about how a benevolent ASI would administer immortality once and it flagged that somehow hahaha
Yeah, I think Anthropic is going slighty overcompensating for the Mythos scare and jailbreaks etc
I think its the wingdings
Oddly, whenever you share this link with Opus, safety filters flag the chat. Hm.
What are your timelines? Curious because there are rumors ‘GPT-6’ releases this year
Absolutely! I love your broad timelines idea on the AI Futures site (the one where you can change your probability distribution on what happens when) but it crashed when I tried doing it 🙁
I’m floored you actually responded haha. I’ll be working to get something running in the meantime, perhaps you could consider it then! Do check your inbox.
I’d be glad to help you out where needed!
Yes, exactly! On (2) in particular, the current system forces updates into 1/4ly posts onto the continuous nature of progress- something like a commit system would let you push an update (eg Opus impressing you) that changes your timelines without having to slot it in a 500-word Substack article and corroborate with Eli etc.
Fair point, but I think this actually kind of strengthens both my argument and yours; the fact is that progress doesn’t follow some smooth exponential. This is why I think it’s more optimum to update our timelines iteratively. Perhaps Mythos was a one-time leap in capability that won’t continue- this is great because it means we can update our priors and instead of bouncing back between extremes we can get a better picture of what our timelines look like.
We need Git for AI Timelines
I think Dario assumes wrongly the scope of intelligence itself; let’s say an agent can improve itself roughly from the level of AlexNet to your average coding agent nowadays (eg Opus 4.6). The gap between these is staggering; even if there is some upper limit who’s to say it’s close?
The human mind itself is much more efficient than 8 H100s; eventually a self-improving agent would top out at that (or become more computationally efficient than us) and by that point I’d argue you couldn’t tell the difference between “very superintelligent” and “wildly superintelligent”.
there might be a confound here in scores of 100% (eg if you know how sound travels in water) undermining scores of 50s
very cool! took the quiz and got a .167
if anyone’d like to help me, do message me
cool survey! im surprised x-risk isnt even a thought amongst the top worries on ai. it really is a bubble
id be interested to see this on a larger sample size, or a different population (EU, urban v rural etc) maybe ill run this myself...
Demands Are All You Need: Prompt Imperativeness Drastically Reduces Hedging In LLMs (n=900, Cohen’s d = 2.67)
I’m 15 (only a highschool freshman)
Reading this thread is bizarre honestly because everyone here’s in their 20s and 30s like those are uncertain.
I’m not even sure I’ll have a normal high school experience, let alone college.
ChatGPT released in my first year of junior high, and it’s more likely than not that something akin to an ASI exists before I graduate. That’s absurd to wrap my head around.
The isolation and the slope is real. A year ago 4o couldn’t solve basic algebra when I fed it my problems (lol) and now here it is solving (?) PhD math (this may be exaggerated, still, the improvement is there)
And for some reason nobody seems to wrap their heads around what’s going on. It’s insane.
The strangest part is not knowing what I want and what’ll happen (I suppose that’s the whole point of the Singularity) Do I prep for exams that might be irrelevant in 5y? Go to uni? It feels like planning for a world that may not exist by the time I graduate.
(also, Opus 4.5 w/ Claude Code is Agent-1, at least something close to it)
it works with 4.6!