Fair point, but I think this actually kind of strengthens both my argument and yours; the fact is that progress doesn’t follow some smooth exponential. This is why I think it’s more optimum to update our timelines iteratively. Perhaps Mythos was a one-time leap in capability that won’t continue- this is great because it means we can update our priors and instead of bouncing back between extremes we can get a better picture of what our timelines look like.
Fair point, but I think this actually kind of strengthens both my argument and yours; the fact is that progress doesn’t follow some smooth exponential. This is why I think it’s more optimum to update our timelines iteratively. Perhaps Mythos was a one-time leap in capability that won’t continue- this is great because it means we can update our priors and instead of bouncing back between extremes we can get a better picture of what our timelines look like.